3165 Oak Forest Dr · Jackson, MS 39212

$98,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1956

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated home located at 3165 Oak Forest Drive in Jackson, Mississippi! As -is ! This spacious property offers 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom on record, plus an additional bonus bedroom and bathroom providing extra flexibility for a growing family, guests, home office, or hobby space. Features include: * Updated central air & amp; heat * Large primary suite area * Spacious living areas * Functional kitchen with plenty of storage * Nice yard with room to entertain or relax * Convenient location near shopping, schools, and major roads The additional bedroom and bathroom added are not reflected in tax records or permitting history. Buyer to verify all m

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Updated central air
• Convenient location

Tags

• UPDATED CENTRAL AIR
• LARGE PRIMARY SUITE
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• NICE YARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1956
• Construction: Single-family home
• Exterior features: Located in the Oak Forest subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,530 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.36%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $38,584
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
920 Woody Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-1%)	2mo	$59,000	$40	86
3156 Woodview Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,409 (-5%)	4mo	$65,000	$46	85
953 Woody Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,595 (+8%)	3mo	$5,900	$4	72
2813 Marydale Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,500 (+1%)	2mo	$34,999	$23	71
3143 Revere St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+3%)	5mo	$37,250	$24	71
1423 Woody Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,404 (-5%)	2mo	$24,900	$18	70
1636 Smallwood St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,432 (-4%)	1mo	$17,000	$12	69
3007 Oak Forest Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+2%)	6mo	$99,700	$66	68
2971 Kentwood Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (+3%)	3mo	$59,900	$39	58
2646 Revere St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,360 (-8%)	0mo	$30,000	$22	53
1416 Wooddell Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,357 (-9%)	4mo	$35,000	$26	45
1027 Autumn St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,694 (+14%)	1mo	$84,900	$50	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $9,495
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $45,472
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $729/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $430	-5% $402	+0% $374	+5% $346	+10% $319
Rent	-10% $275	-5% $325	+0% $374	+5% $424	+10% $473
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $399	base $374	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3162 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,236	$0.97	44d	1	0.05mi
3122 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,100	$0.77	44d	1	0.12mi
3151 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,306	$0.89	14d	1	0.14mi
1219 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,150	$1.09	24d	1	0.23mi
3049 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$975	$0.81	44d	1	0.28mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	14d	1	0.29mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	44d	1	0.29mi
3020 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,150	$0.72	24d	1	0.32mi
1223 Marydale Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1300	$950	$0.73	44d	1	0.37mi
3308 Ramona St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,150	$1.04	22d	1	0.41mi
2873 Teresa Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	0.47mi
2904 Marwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,250	$0.80	24d	1	0.54mi
3147 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,306	$0.71	44d	1	0.55mi
3152 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	14d	1	0.57mi
1010 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,050	$0.92	14d	1	0.65mi
3511 Sykes Park Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,426	$1.16	14d	1	0.66mi
1018 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1056	$900	$0.85	24d	1	0.66mi
2729 Carleton St Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1666	$1,575	$0.95	14d	1	0.71mi
103 Sykes Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	0.72mi
1054 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1132	$1,050	$0.93	14d	1	0.74mi
2915 Longwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,400	$0.78	24d	1	0.74mi
422 Cooper Rd Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1049	$1,426	$1.36	24d	1	0.77mi
2786 Brookwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.82mi
360 Cooper Rd Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1624	$1,575	$0.97	14d	1	0.83mi
427 McDowell Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,200	$0.92	14d	1	0.83mi
3341 Suncrest Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	1.0	1292	$1,225	$0.95	44d	1	0.84mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	44d	1	0.84mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	14d	1	0.84mi
2808 Ridgeland Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,600	$1.00	44d	1	0.84mi
2732 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1566	$1,050	$0.67	24d	1	0.88mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	14d	1	0.96mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	24d	1	0.96mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	24d	1	1.00mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	14d	1	1.00mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	14d	1	1.01mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	44d	1	1.01mi
2858 Fairhill Dr Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	900	$825	$0.92	44d	1	1.05mi
267 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1165	$1,100	$0.94	44d	1	1.08mi
270 Wildwood Ct Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	22d	1	1.15mi
843 Reaves St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,084	$0.77	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $98,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $98,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $98,000 Active
18. 2021-10-20
    historical
19. 2021-10-02
    historical
20. 2021-06-07
    historical
21. 2021-02-06
    listed $62,000
22. 2020-02-22
    listed $48,000
23. 2018-06-10
    listed $28,000
24. 2014-02-25
    soldstatus
25. 2013-08-27
    soldstatus
26. 2013-08-05
    listed $8,000
27. 2012-12-19
    soldstatus
28. 1999-10-01
    soldstatus
29. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $729 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $774 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$45/yr (+$4/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$729
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $3,067
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$736
• After-tax cash flow: $3,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+1125.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $98,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-10-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-06-07 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-02-06 Listed $62,000 MLSU
• 2020-02-22 Listed $48,000 MLSU
• 2018-06-10 Listed $28,000 MLSU
• 2014-02-25 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-05 Listed $8,000 MLSU
• 2012-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $729 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.