191 Big Rock Dr · Bandera, TX 78003

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 228 Days on market

Built 2003 10,062 sqft lot $121/sqft · 43% below area Est $329k · 43% under $6/mo HOA ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this beautifully updated Hill Country home that perfectly combines comfort, style, and peaceful country living. Resting on just under a quarter-acre, the property offers a welcoming presence with its freshly stained covered front porch and expansive back deck-ideal spaces to unwind and take in the scenery. Outside showcases thoughtful landscaping with mature trees, colorful plantings, and a fully fenced front and back yard for privacy and enjoyment. A durable metal roof, gutters, and large storage building add lasting value and practicality. The property's landscaping has been thoughtfully designed to highlight the natural beauty of the Hill Country. The yard features various vibrant crepe myrtles, a large fig tree, producing peach tree, raspberries, a Mexican olive, a lime tree, white vitex, and maple trees-creating a lush, seasonal display of color and shade throughout the year. Every plant and tree contributes to the home's inviting outdoor atmosphere, offering both beauty and function in a serene setting. Inside, pride of ownership is evident throughout. Recent updates include new wood laminate flooring throughout the entire home, completely carpet-free for easy maintenance. The remodeled kitchen showcases freshly painted cabinetry, stainless steel Whirlpool appliances (included: refrigerator, gas stove, washer, and dryer), and a functional island that anchors the space beautifully. The open layout flows effortlessly into the living area, making this home perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The primary suite offers a spa-like experience with a custom tiled shower featuring a glass door and dual vanities. The secondary bathroom also includes a custom tile shower, maintaining a cohesive, high-end finish throughout. Comfort is ensured year-round with a brand-new HVAC system installed last year. Residents of the community enjoy private access to the Medina River-perfect for swimming, kayaking, and soaking in the Hill Country lifestyle.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Durable metal roof
• Expansive back deck

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• EXPANSIVE BACK DECK
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDING
• THOUGHTFUL LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 1.6% in Bandera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#209 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alkek El (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 630 students, 61% FRL); Bandera Middle (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 555 students, 56% FRL); Bandera H S (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 713 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 545 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.56%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,947
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -42.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,008
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $37,144
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 545
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,327/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,502

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $573	-5% $519	+0% $466	+5% $412	+10% $359
Rent	-10% $300	-5% $383	+0% $466	+5% $548	+10% $631
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $514	base $466	+0.5pp $417	+1.0pp $367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
141 Happy Hollow Trl Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,400	$1.35	45d	1	1.04mi
502 Cypress St Bandera, TX	2.0	1.0	1424	$1,700	$1.19	26d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,000 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2025-11-05
    listed $189,000 New 1997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1997 chars)

    Discover this beautifully updated Hill Country home that perfectly combines comfort, style, and peaceful country living. Resting on just under a quarter-acre, the property offers a welcoming presence with its freshly stained covered front porch and expansive back deck-ideal spaces to unwind and take in the scenery. Outside showcases thoughtful landscaping with mature trees, colorful plantings, and a fully fenced front and back yard for privacy and enjoyment. A durable metal roof, gutters, and large storage building add lasting value and practicality. The property's landscaping has been thoughtfully designed to highlight the natural beauty of the Hill Country. The yard features various vibrant crepe myrtles, a large fig tree, producing peach tree, raspberries, a Mexican olive, a lime tree, white vitex, and maple trees-creating a lush, seasonal display of color and shade throughout the year. Every plant and tree contributes to the home's inviting outdoor atmosphere, offering both beauty and function in a serene setting. Inside, pride of ownership is evident throughout. Recent updates include new wood laminate flooring throughout the entire home, completely carpet-free for easy maintenance. The remodeled kitchen showcases freshly painted cabinetry, stainless steel Whirlpool appliances (included: refrigerator, gas stove, washer, and dryer), and a functional island that anchors the space beautifully. The open layout flows effortlessly into the living area, making this home perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The primary suite offers a spa-like experience with a custom tiled shower featuring a glass door and dual vanities. The secondary bathroom also includes a custom tile shower, maintaining a cohesive, high-end finish throughout. Comfort is ensured year-round with a brand-new HVAC system installed last year. Residents of the community enjoy private access to the Medina River-perfect for swimming, kayaking, and soaking in the Hill Country lifestyle.

15. 2023-04-23
    historical
16. 2023-04-07
    listed $199,000 New
17. 2008-08-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,132/yr (+$178/mo · 160.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,327
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,008
• − Management: −$2,008
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $2,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$636
• After-tax cash flow: $4,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bandera

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #5244

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-05 Listed $189,000 LERA
• 2023-04-23 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-04-07 Listed $199,000 LERA
• 2008-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,327 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.