2812 Pelham Rd · Rockford, IL 61107

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,208 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1950 9,148 sqft lot Est $252k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 Bedroom Ranch is Immaculate and Boasts Beautiful Hardwood Floors, Spacious Living Room with Full Brick Fireplace and a 4-Season Sun Porch. All Newer Windows, Patio Doors, Garage Door, Water Heater, Sump Pump and Gutter Guards. Wow!! Fenced Rear Yard with Patio. Kitchen "L" 3.5'. HSA Home Warranty.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $906 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: C Henry Bloom Elem School (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,517 of 2,056 statewide, top 78%, 410 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Middle School (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #540 of 665 statewide, top 82%, 961 students, 0% FRL); Guilford High School (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #345 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 2,071 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $145k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.79%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2812 Pelham Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	2,208 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$59	100
1606 Roncevalles Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,266 (+3%)	0mo	$265,000	$117	75
2615 Brendenwood Rd	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,977 (-10%)	4mo	$184,000	$93	67
926 Stratford Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	2,347 (+6%)	3mo	$221,100	$94	62
925 Westchester Dr	0.37mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,028 (-8%)	1mo	$231,750	$114	62
1012 Chelsea Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,066 (-6%)	1mo	$240,000	$116	58
1825 Edgebrook Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,280 (+3%)	6mo	$260,000	$114	56
1708 Parkview	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,956 (-11%)	2mo	$305,000	$156	54
909 Woodlane Ave	0.43mi	3/3.0	2,407 (+9%)	8mo	$265,000	$110	51
611 Robert Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,058 (-7%)	6mo	$195,000	$95	46
1928 Bradley Rd	0.42mi	3/3.5	2,450 (+11%)	7mo	$305,000	$124	46
2133 Guilford Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,445 (+11%)	7mo	$265,000	$108	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $41,937
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $144,412
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61107

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,520 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,167/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $906

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4300 Eastridge Dr Unit 1 Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	13d	1	1.26mi
4016 Eaton Dr Unit 1232695P Rockford, IL	3.0	3.0	1722	$4,169	$2.42	13d	1	1.47mi
3121 Carefree Dr Rockford, IL	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,800	$0.93	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $145,000
2. 2026-05-20
   historical
3. 2018-11-19
   soldstatus $84,000
4. 2018-11-15
   soldstatus $84,000 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   This 3 Bedroom Ranch is Immaculate and Boasts Beautiful Hardwood Floors, Spacious Living Room with Full Brick Fireplace and a 4-Season Sun Porch. All Newer Windows, Patio Doors, Garage Door, Water Heater, Sump Pump and Gutter Guards. Wow!! Fenced Rear Yard with Patio. Kitchen "L" 3.5'. HSA Home Warranty.

5. 2018-09-28
   listed $84,812 315-char remark

   Show marketing remark (315 chars)

   This 3 Bedroom Ranch is Immaculate and Boasts Beautiful Hardwood Floors, Spacious Living Room with Full Brick Fireplace and a 4-Season Sun Porch. All Newer Windows, Patio Doors, Garage Door, Water Heater, Sump Pump and Gutter Guards. Wow!! Fenced Rear Yard with Patio. Kitchen "L" 3.5'. HSA Home Warranty.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,167 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,229 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$62/yr (+$5/mo · 2.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,167
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,419
• − Management: −$2,419
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $9,172
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,201
• After-tax cash flow: $8,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,765
• Household income: $78,574
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 981.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.46%
• Current HPI: 248.8598
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.92%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+71.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Delisted — NWIAR
• 2026-05-20 Listed $145,000 NWIAR
• 2018-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-15 Sold (MLS) $84,000 NWIAR
• 2018-09-28 Listed $84,812 NWIAR

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,167 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.