222 2nd Ave E · Gardena, ND 58748

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,031 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Built 1940 Poor condition 0.48 ac lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Key facts

• Newer steel roof
• Water heater
• Well pump

Tags

• LARGE ENTRYWAY
• NEWER STEEL ROOF
• WATER HEATER
• WELL PUMP
• CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Exterior features: Gravel parking area; Lot approximately 0.48 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Interior features: Electric heating; Basement (unfinished)
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($956 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#302 in ND) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bottineau 1 (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #30 of 53 in ND (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Bottineau County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bottineau County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $37,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.49%
• DSCR: 3.29
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $35,352
• Equity at exit: $17,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.44×
• Total profit: $83,088
• Equity at exit: $27,649

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58748

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $507	-5% $493	+0% $479	+5% $466	+10% $452
Rent	-10% $404	-5% $442	+0% $479	+5% $517	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $499	-0.5pp $490	base $479	+0.5pp $469	+1.0pp $459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $39,900 Active
17. 2025-09-23
    price $39,900
18. 2025-06-18
    price $43,900
19. 2025-05-07
    listed $48,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$918
• − Management: −$918
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $5,441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,306
• After-tax cash flow: $4,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations to bring it up to modern standards, significantly increasing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely dated and in poor condition
• Major kitchen countertops — severely dated and in poor condition
• Major kitchen appliances — severely dated and in poor condition
• Major bathroom fixtures — severely dated and in poor condition
• Major bathroom flooring — severely dated and in poor condition
• Major exterior siding — severely weathered and peeling
• Major roof — visible wear
• Major HVAC system — old and possibly inefficient
• Major landscaping — overgrown and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom can significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both exterior siding and roof repair — repairing the siding and roof can significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both HVAC system replacement — replacing the HVAC system can significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improving the landscaping and curb appeal can significantly increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen countertops · severely dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen appliances · severely dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · severely dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom flooring · severely dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · severely weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · old and possibly inefficient	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · overgrown and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both exterior siding and roof repair — repairing the siding and roof can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — replacing the HVAC system can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improving the landscaping and curb appeal can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bottineau 1
• NCES district ID: 3803060
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $48,169
• Composite: 33.92/100
• National rank: #5340
• State rank: #30 of 53 in ND

Livability — Gardena

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #21443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gardena, ND
• Population (ZIP): 149

Population outlook (Bottineau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,367 people
• By 2030: 7,789 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 8,818 · +19.7%
• By 2050: 10,174 · +38.1%
• By 2075: 15,137 · +105.5%
• By 2100: 19,942 · +170.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Native American 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Lithuanian 8% Scottish 7%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bottineau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.3) · D 21.5% · R 76.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: -19.1pp · 2024: -55.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.3 2020: R+50.5 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-18.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $39,900 MMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $39,900 MMLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $43,900 MMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listed $48,900 MMLS