1661-434 Old Country Rd · Calverton, NY 11901

$219,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured · 143 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $238k · 8% under $800/mo HOA · 25% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 2 bedroom, 2 full bath home in Glenwood Village features a recently updated kitchen, central air conditioning and a sizable yard. High ceilings welcome you to the open living area, and both generously sized bedrooms offer large closets. Glenwood Village is a 55 and over land lease community in Riverhead conveniently located with ideal access to shopping and restaurants.

Key facts

• Sizable yard
• Large closets
• Open living area

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• SIZABLE YARD
• HIGH CEILINGS
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• LARGE CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roanoke Avenue School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 408 students, 46% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.

Recommended offer $192,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.12%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1661 Old Country Rd #166	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+1%)	5mo	$260,000	$226	95
1661 Old Country Rd #195	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+1%)	1mo	$237,000	$205	85
1661-179 Old Country Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,036 (-9%)	10mo	$215,000	$208	76
1661 Old Country Rd #294	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,036 (-9%)	12mo	$190,000	$183	74
1661-364 Old Country Road Pondwood #364 Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	6mo	$241,500	$194	74
1661 Old Country Rd #506	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+8%)	3mo	$329,999	$268	72
1661 Old Country Rd #301	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,088 (-5%)	10mo	$249,000	$229	70
1661-290 Old Country Rd #290	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+1%)	7mo	$240,000	$208	69
1661 Old Country Rd #435	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,270 (+11%)	7mo	$301,000	$237	62
1661 Old Country Rd #348	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	1mo	$310,000	$248	60
433 Mill Rd #57	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-13%)	7mo	$155,000	$155	53
1661 Old Country Rd #280	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-12%)	4mo	$185,000	$184	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-8,650
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $28,182
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $882/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$800
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $539	-5% $477	+0% $415	+5% $353	+10% $291
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $288	+0% $415	+5% $541	+10% $668
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $471	base $415	+0.5pp $358	+1.0pp $300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1278 W Main St Riverhead, NY	2.0	1.0	704	$3,200	$4.55	44d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $800 · $9,600/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   status Active
3. 2026-03-15
   historical
4. 2026-01-29
   status Active
5. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
6. 2025-11-30
   price $219,000
7. 2025-10-15
   listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $882 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,291 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,410/yr (+$117/mo · 159.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$882
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $2,041
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$490
• After-tax cash flow: $4,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 32,921
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $219,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listed $229,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid