948 Joliet Dr · Maumee, OH 43537

$194,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,742 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1961 10,100 sqft lot Est $287k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity waits here! Solid 4/5 bedroom home, over 1,700 square feet, Convenient location. Newer windows, large 2 car garage, UPDATES AND REPAIRS needed. Take a look.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1961

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-214/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in Maumee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#221 in OH, #3,442 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maumee City (suburban): math 65% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #194 of 656 in OH (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fairfield Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #116 of 1,584 statewide, top 9%, 345 students, 32% FRL); Gateway Middle School (math 63% / reading 66%, grade A-, #205 of 654 statewide, top 34%, 522 students, 34% FRL); Maumee High School (math 67% / reading 76%, grade B+, #98 of 781 statewide, top 13%, 648 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $195k implies a 1014% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $183,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,430
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
602 W John St	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,681 (-4%)	8mo	$240,000	$143	70
614 W John St	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,934 (+11%)	1mo	$299,000	$155	66
303 W Dudley St	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,693 (-3%)	11mo	$300,000	$177	56
520 W John St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-12%)	1mo	$318,000	$206	56
504 W John St	0.40mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (-8%)	6mo	$271,300	$169	56
512 W Dudley St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,852 (+6%)	15mo	$284,000	$153	51
4363 Margrete Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,760 (+1%)	20mo	$249,900	$142	50
312 W Dudley St	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,844 (+6%)	10mo	$305,000	$165	45
316 W William St	0.56mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,756 (+1%)	22mo	$307,000	$175	44
310 W Dudley St	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,952 (+12%)	14mo	$254,900	$131	39
509 W William St	0.38mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,480 (-15%)	23mo	$260,000	$176	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-32,564
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,187
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43537

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$450 /mo · $5,404/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,967

Max offer price $191,742

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $37	+0% $-18	+5% $-73	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-95	+0% $-18	+5% $59	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $32	base $-18	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-07
   price $194,900
3. 2026-01-09
   listed $199,900 Active
4. 2025-11-18
   price $199,900
5. 1985-10-18
   soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,404 · $450/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,404 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$5,404
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$3,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$809
• After-tax cash flow: $594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maumee City
• NCES district ID: 3904436
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $53,412
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #1162
• State rank: #194 of 656 in OH

Livability — Maumee

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #3442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maumee, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 30,111
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 30,111
• Household income: $82,752
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 592.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.67%
• Current HPI: 203.8449
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+1013.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — NORIS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $194,900 NORIS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $199,900 NORIS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $199,900 FAOR
• 1985-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,404 · +33.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.