10119 Towne Mist Dr · Houston, TX 77498

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1981 6,825 sqft lot $170/sqft · 11% below area Est $224k · 11% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gem on quiet and wooded street in Townwest. High ceiling , must seee lots of potential . Prices to sell . Low taxes Wide entrance on the side to back yard great for easy access.

Key facts

• 6,825 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 277 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,689 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.01%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,574
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -10.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10311 Westedge Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,175 (0%)	1mo	$185,000	$157	95
10018 King Ranch Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,171 (-0%)	6mo	$215,000	$184	87
10327 Hollow Canyon Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,171 (-0%)	9mo	$250,000	$213	85
14010 Towneway Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,129 (-4%)	5mo	$209,900	$186	80
14110 Towne Way Dr	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,122 (-4%)	4mo	$219,975	$196	79
14038 Towne Way Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,039 (-12%)	9mo	$219,900	$212	66
10918 Spanish Grant Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,138 (-3%)	4mo	$189,000	$166	58
9903 Kent Towne Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+10%)	4mo	$209,000	$161	55
10734 Parkland Woods	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,059 (-10%)	2mo	$189,000	$178	52
13822 New Village Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+10%)	9mo	$256,000	$198	49
13719 Southline Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+10%)	3mo	$224,900	$174	46
14318 Moorfield Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,342 (+14%)	4mo	$229,000	$171	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-46,659
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-69,567
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77498

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,079/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,984

Max offer price $171,689

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10111 King Ranch Ln Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,850	$1.30	20d	1	0.08mi
14402 W Bellfort Ave Unit 22258 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1358	$1,475	$1.09	43d	1	0.42mi
14402 W Bellfort Ave Unit 28654 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1360	$1,488	$1.09	43d	1	0.42mi
14402 W Bellfort Unit 2148 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,611	$1.53	3d	1	0.48mi
14402 W Bellfort St Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,577	$1.50	22d	1	0.48mi
14402 W Bellfort Unit 2174 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,643	$1.56	10d	1	0.48mi
14402 W Bellfort Unit 14439 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,654	$1.57	43d	1	0.48mi
14402 W Bellfort Apt 424 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,619	$1.54	5d	1	0.49mi
10411 Cedartowne Ln Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,756	$1.35	22d	1	0.60mi
10810 Lakewood Oaks Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,641	$1.55	43d	1	0.69mi
10723 Forest Leaf Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	43d	1	0.73mi
10811 Forest Leaf Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,766	$1.28	43d	1	0.78mi
14007 Florence Rd Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,577	$1.50	11d	1	0.87mi
9402 Synott Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	825	$1,100	$1.33	7d	1	1.38mi
9402 Synott Rd Unit 9429 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	825	$1,092	$1.32	3d	1	1.38mi
13106 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,485	$1.35	43d	1	1.42mi
15000 W Airport Blvd Sugar Land, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,885	$1.88	1d	14	1.47mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 3047 Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,572	$1.32	11d	1	1.47mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 2047 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,397	$1.43	11d	1	1.47mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 425 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,354	$1.38	3d	1	1.48mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 2174 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,386	$1.41	10d	1	1.48mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 3174 Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,561	$1.31	10d	1	1.48mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 424 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,362	$1.39	5d	1	1.48mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 3148 Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,529	$1.28	3d	1	1.48mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 15961 Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,572	$1.32	43d	1	1.48mi
15928 Old Richmond Rd Unit 15985 Sugar Land, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,387	$1.42	43d	1	1.48mi
13100 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,152	$2.11	1d	28	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-04-13
    listed $200,000 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Gem on quiet and wooded street in Townwest. High ceiling , must seee lots of potential . Prices to sell . Low taxes Wide entrance on the side to back yard great for easy access.

14. 2004-04-23
    soldstatus
15. 2003-09-30
    historical
16. 2003-08-04
    listed $87,000
17. 1994-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,079 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,079 · $340/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,079
• − Insurance: −$1,798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $-654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,806
• Household income: $100,950
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1252.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 28% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 20% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Ukrainian 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 10% Vietnamese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.01%
• Current HPI: 245.1437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+129.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2004-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-08-04 Listed $87,000 HARMLS
• 1994-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,079 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.