1440 S Orange Ave #29 · El Cajon, CA 92020

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $143k · 26% under ↓ 33% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful and quiet 55 and older park with many amenities such as pool, sauna, and easy access to freeway. Spacious double wide with 2 beds 2 bath and almost 1400 square feet. Newer vinyl plank flooring and cabinets. Tandem parking under carport that can fit 2 cars and many guest parking spaces right in front. Newer tile in bathroom. Central forced air and heating system. Great Park move in ready conditions. Brand New washer and dryer. Park space rent is $1624.00 per month

Key facts

• Sauna
• Pool
• Many amenities

Tags

• MANY AMENITIES
• POOL
• SAUNA
• EASY ACCESS TO FREEWAY
• NEWER VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEWER TILE IN BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community; Villa Novia Country Estates

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Community pool; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Vented exhaust fan; Range; Oven; Range hood
• Laundry & utility: Washer

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $105,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$142,560) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 2.4% in El Cajon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.09%
• DSCR: 3.72
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,560
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1490 S ORANGE #123	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$135,000	$94	87
1440 S Orange Ave Spc 28	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	21mo	$140,000	$97	82
1440 S Orange Ave #85	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	23mo	$158,500	$110	81
1440 S Orange Ave. #52	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	24mo	$142,500	$99	73
1490 S Orange Ave #132	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,632 (+13%)	14mo	$205,000	$126	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $76,098
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $180,073
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92020

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,674 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $254/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $1,497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,556	-5% $1,526	+0% $1,497	+5% $1,467	+10% $1,437
Rent	-10% $1,286	-5% $1,391	+0% $1,497	+5% $1,602	+10% $1,708
Rate	-1.0pp $1,550	-0.5pp $1,523	base $1,497	+0.5pp $1,470	+1.0pp $1,442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
345 Dahlia Way El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1700	$4,200	$2.47	2d	1	0.40mi
1013 S Sunshine Ave Unit G El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$2,500	$2.72	22d	1	0.42mi
1013 S Sunshine Ave Unit I El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$2,500	$2.72	0d	1	0.42mi
948 S Sunshine Ave Unit 20 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,095	$2.33	0d	1	0.47mi
923 S Sunshine Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,050	$2.28	0d	1	0.47mi
921 S Sunshine Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	0d	2	0.50mi
761 S Orange Ave Unit B El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,095	$2.10	0d	1	0.74mi
851 Taft Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1792	$3,850	$2.15	0d	1	0.81mi
1036 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1776	$4,350	$2.45	0d	1	0.87mi
1020 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1768	$4,100	$2.32	0d	1	0.87mi
1026 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1771	$4,000	$2.26	0d	1	0.87mi
633 S Johnson Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$2,400	$2.86	0d	4	0.92mi
725 Franklin Ave Unit D El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	0d	1	0.93mi
802 Franklin Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	6d	2	0.98mi
802 Franklin Ave Unit 858 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	0d	1	0.98mi
758 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,945	$2.22	0d	2	1.05mi
957 E Washington Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,295	$2.55	0d	1	1.19mi
975 E Washington Ave Apt E El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	22d	1	1.22mi
265 Richardson Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	1024	$3,250	$3.17	3d	1	1.22mi
447 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	928	$2,300	$2.48	0d	1	1.23mi
602 S Mollison Ave Unit C El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,600	$2.54	0d	1	1.24mi
415 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	749	$2,359	$3.15	0d	5	1.26mi
351 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,395	$2.66	0d	1	1.32mi
620 E Lexington Ave #3 El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,900	$2.90	3d	1	1.32mi
148 Taft Ave Unit 7 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,870	$2.14	0d	1	1.35mi
1065 E Washington Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,850	$2.59	0d	1	1.35mi
1065 E Washington Ave Apt N El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,850	$2.59	18d	1	1.35mi
800 E Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1040	$2,390	$2.30	0d	5	1.40mi
200 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,995	$2.10	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 478-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   price $105,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $119,999 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,999 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,999 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,999 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,999 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,999 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,999 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,999 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $119,999 Active
19. 2026-05-21
    historical
20. 2026-04-12
    price $129,999
21. 2026-04-07
    price $149,999
22. 2026-03-26
    listed $179,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $254 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $798 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 214.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$254
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,567
• − Management: −$2,567
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $17,237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,137
• After-tax cash flow: $13,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — El Cajon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #7531

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cajon, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 173,694
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,842
• Household income: $76,032
• Rent vs Own: 55.6% rent · 44.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3892.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Arab 7% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 21% Arabic 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -724.49%
• Current HPI: 361.2373
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $119,999 SDMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $129,999 SDMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $149,999 SDMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $179,999 SDMLS