5761 Main St · Millbrook, AL 36054

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,551 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1958 2.90 ac lot $128/sqft · 7% below area Est $213k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The heart of desirable Millbrook with pond access! New flooring, exterior painting, touch up interior painting, new cook top and electric fireplace place insert installed soon! The possibilities of this established home in Millbrook is calling for you to add your own touches and personality! Living and dining combination, beautiful screened front porch to have your morning coffee or evening toddy and watch Millbrook go by. Enclosed sun porch on back could sitting area. Covered back porch. There is a wonderful 13x30 covered area on the rear of the house that would be fabulous with a deck. Enclosed garage in the last few years. New metal roof-1 year ago, chimney was cut off and capped, new electric insert will be added soon, 20x20 wired storage/shop. 2.94 acres with pond access. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath. Smaller shed does not stay. The above ground pool can remain or seller will remove.

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• New metal roof
• Enclosed garage

Tags

• POND ACCESS
• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• ENCLOSED SUN PORCH
• ENCLOSED GARAGE
• NEW METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.4% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#110 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $199k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,446 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,892
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -6.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5761 Main St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,551 (0%)	1mo	$193,000	$124	99
193 Homewood Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+1%)	4mo	$249,900	$159	64
3242 Browns Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-11%)	3mo	$215,000	$156	52
3340 Browns Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-12%)	2mo	$210,000	$154	50
112 Millridge Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-11%)	0mo	$200,000	$145	50
30 Payton Ct	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+14%)	1mo	$275,900	$156	50
288 Mill Ridge Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-9%)	2mo	$199,900	$142	48
337 Mill Ridge Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,389 (-10%)	6mo	$208,000	$150	44
5270 Mona Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,708 (+10%)	11mo	$190,000	$111	42
44 Vann Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-14%)	6mo	$242,500	$181	41
126 Forest Trl	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,324 (-15%)	1mo	$163,999	$124	39
87 Penton Ct	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-14%)	9mo	$183,500	$138	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,880
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $50,198
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36054

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $629/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,492

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5421 Shady Dr Millbrook, AL	4.0	2.0	1809	$1,800	$1.00	43d	1	0.29mi
30 Payton Ct Millbrook, AL	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,000	$1.13	13d	1	0.35mi
33 Jamestown Loop Millbrook, AL	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,375	$1.10	13d	1	0.79mi
63 Lilly Pad Cir Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1521	$1,700	$1.12	13d	1	0.96mi
223 S Springfield Dr Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1761	$1,950	$1.11	43d	1	1.03mi
164 Camellia Ct Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,500	$0.99	13d	1	1.15mi
101 Crossings Dr Millbrook, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,670	$1.54	13d	7	1.38mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-06
   historical Contingent 897-char remark

   Show marketing remark (897 chars)

   The heart of desirable Millbrook with pond access! New flooring, exterior painting, touch up interior painting, new cook top and electric fireplace place insert installed soon! The possibilities of this established home in Millbrook is calling for you to add your own touches and personality! Living and dining combination, beautiful screened front porch to have your morning coffee or evening toddy and watch Millbrook go by. Enclosed sun porch on back could sitting area. Covered back porch. There is a wonderful 13x30 covered area on the rear of the house that would be fabulous with a deck. Enclosed garage in the last few years. New metal roof-1 year ago, chimney was cut off and capped, new electric insert will be added soon, 20x20 wired storage/shop. 2.94 acres with pond access. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath. Smaller shed does not stay. The above ground pool can remain or seller will remove.

2. 2026-04-03
   price $199,000 897-char remark

   Show marketing remark (897 chars)

   The heart of desirable Millbrook with pond access! New flooring, exterior painting, touch up interior painting, new cook top and electric fireplace place insert installed soon! The possibilities of this established home in Millbrook is calling for you to add your own touches and personality! Living and dining combination, beautiful screened front porch to have your morning coffee or evening toddy and watch Millbrook go by. Enclosed sun porch on back could sitting area. Covered back porch. There is a wonderful 13x30 covered area on the rear of the house that would be fabulous with a deck. Enclosed garage in the last few years. New metal roof-1 year ago, chimney was cut off and capped, new electric insert will be added soon, 20x20 wired storage/shop. 2.94 acres with pond access. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath. Smaller shed does not stay. The above ground pool can remain or seller will remove.

3. 2026-03-17
   listed $217,000 Active 897-char remark

   Show marketing remark (897 chars)

   The heart of desirable Millbrook with pond access! New flooring, exterior painting, touch up interior painting, new cook top and electric fireplace place insert installed soon! The possibilities of this established home in Millbrook is calling for you to add your own touches and personality! Living and dining combination, beautiful screened front porch to have your morning coffee or evening toddy and watch Millbrook go by. Enclosed sun porch on back could sitting area. Covered back porch. There is a wonderful 13x30 covered area on the rear of the house that would be fabulous with a deck. Enclosed garage in the last few years. New metal roof-1 year ago, chimney was cut off and capped, new electric insert will be added soon, 20x20 wired storage/shop. 2.94 acres with pond access. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath. Smaller shed does not stay. The above ground pool can remain or seller will remove.

4. 2019-05-14
   soldstatus $83,500
5. 2015-02-06
   soldstatus $91,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $629 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$187/yr (+$16/mo · 29.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$629
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$210
• After-tax cash flow: $2,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmore County
• NCES district ID: 0101290
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,898
• Composite: 35.27/100
• National rank: #4974
• State rank: #21 of 129 in AL

Livability — Millbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #12087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millbrook, AL
• County: Elmore County · 36,842 people
• City population: 14,600
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 14,600
• Household income: $68,438
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 201.0

Population outlook (Elmore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,154 people
• By 2030: 86,667 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 89,014 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 90,331 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 96,096 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 95,290 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Elmore

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+48.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.96%
• Current HPI: 151.6671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+117.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $199,000 MAAR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $217,000 MAAR
• 2019-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records
• 2015-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $91,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2019): $629 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.