48 Pennwick Dr · Lititz, PA 17543

$269,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1990 2,614 sqft lot Est $309k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming townhome located in great neighborhood. A great walking neighborhood. NEW heat pump/air conditioning, two year old hot water heater, NEW door, nine-year roof, etc. All mechanicals are newer so just move in. NEWER windows. A little paint and TLC and you will love this home. Attractive gardening and 2 car off street parking. For young families your children can walk across the grass to Kissel Hill Elementary School which is an excellent school. Just move in, priced to sell.

Key facts

• Nine year roof
• Off street parking
• Hot water heater

Tags

• HEAT PUMP AIR CONDITIONING
• HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW DOOR
• NINE YEAR ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• OFF STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two off-street parking spaces (total 2 garage/parking spaces listed)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service; Electric hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Vinyl siding exterior; Composite roof
• Construction: Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level; One bedroom on the second upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Living room; Dining room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in Lititz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#57 in PA, #396 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Warwick SD (suburban): math 42% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #158 of 539 in PA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $270k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,869 (0.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.63%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,880
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Pennwick Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,170 (+8%)	12mo	$335,000	$286	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-21,182
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $10,546
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17543

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,902/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,240

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
446 Crosswinds Dr Lititz, PA	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,250	$1.75	43d	1	0.79mi
446 Crosswinds Dr Lititz, PA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,250	$1.73	13d	1	0.79mi
100 Wickshire Cir Lititz, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$3,688	$3.55	13d	4	0.83mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 485-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $269,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,902 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,583 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: +$681/yr (+$57/mo · 23.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,902
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,581
• − Management: −$2,581
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29
• After-tax cash flow: $4,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warwick SD
• NCES district ID: 4224960
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $63,696
• Composite: 44.03/100
• National rank: #2884
• State rank: #158 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lititz

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #396

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lititz, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 45,912
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,912
• Household income: $97,435
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1164.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, India, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.22%
• Current HPI: 265.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+237.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $269,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 1991-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $80,050 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,902 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.