15886 E State Fair St · Detroit, MI 48205

$47,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,009 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1943 5,663 sqft lot $47/sqft · 23% above area Est $39k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELL KEPT PROPERTY. LOCATED NEAR EIGHT MILE AN KELLY RD ON DETROIT EAST SIDE. HOUSE IS CURRENTLY RENTED FOR $725 SINCE OCTOBER 2019. START COLLECTING MONEY RIGHT AFTER CLOSING.

Key facts

• Well kept property
• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1943

Tags

• WELL KEPT PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $677 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 373 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $328 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,650 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.06%
• DSCR: 3.72
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $38,633
• List price: $47,500
• Delta: 22.95%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16209 Tacoma St	0.18mi	3/1.0	968 (-4%)	1mo	$62,900	$65	84
16260 Bringard Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,036 (+3%)	0mo	$80,000	$77	80
16277 Liberal St	0.28mi	3/1.0	945 (-6%)	1mo	$25,000	$26	75
15644 Carlisle St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,055 (+5%)	0mo	$129,900	$123	70
16062 Carlisle St	0.45mi	3/1.0	957 (-5%)	1mo	$42,000	$44	70
16062 CARLISLE St	0.45mi	3/1.0	957 (-5%)	1mo	$42,000	$44	70
16301 Coram St	0.38mi	3/1.0	929 (-8%)	1mo	$19,500	$21	68
16267 Edmore Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+9%)	1mo	$122,500	$111	65
12893 Payton St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+1%)	1mo	$75,000	$74	65
18905 Woodland St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,023 (+1%)	1mo	$105,000	$103	63
14788 Rossini Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,099 (+9%)	1mo	$82,000	$75	52
14910 Fairmount Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,116 (+11%)	1mo	$15,000	$13	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $33,244
• Equity at exit: $7,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $75,879
• Equity at exit: $4,107

Cash invested: $13,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48205

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$249
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $677

Break-even live

Break-even rent $483

Max offer price $47,500

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,875
• Closing costs: $1,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16225 Manning St Detroit, MI	4.0	2.0	1036	$1,475	$1.42	43d	1	0.25mi
16242 Bringard Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,300	$0.96	5d	1	0.32mi
16291 Eastburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	24d	1	0.33mi
16446 E State Fair St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	24d	1	0.36mi
15503 Edmore Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1285	$1,100	$0.86	43d	1	0.39mi
15604 Coram St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1210	$1,000	$0.83	43d	1	0.39mi
16410 Edmore Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	15d	1	0.43mi
15909 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	894	$1,266	$1.42	43d	1	0.44mi
15663 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	803	$1,050	$1.31	15d	1	0.46mi
16031 E 7 Mile Rd #5 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1204	$1,200	$1.00	2d	1	0.50mi
16212 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	12d	1	0.50mi
15616 E 7 Mile Rd Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,150	$1.00	17d	1	0.55mi
18530 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.5	1396	$1,375	$0.98	17d	1	0.60mi
12716 Riad St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	974	$1,275	$1.31	17d	1	0.83mi
19152 Woodside St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	916	$1,500	$1.64	17d	1	0.88mi
14504 Coram St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1203	$1,175	$0.98	24d	1	0.90mi
14461 Lappin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	989	$1,150	$1.16	17d	1	0.96mi
14481 Maddelein St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	43d	1	0.97mi
19144 Moross Rd Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	43d	1	0.97mi
15494 Mapleridge St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	937	$1,275	$1.36	43d	1	0.99mi
19365 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	4.0	1.5	996	$1,650	$1.66	14d	1	1.05mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	15d	1	1.07mi
12075 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,245	$1.13	43d	1	1.07mi
14134 Collingham Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,350	$1.04	43d	1	1.09mi
19435 McCormick St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,300	$1.13	17d	1	1.13mi
19442 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	17d	1	1.13mi
14068 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,300	$1.27	24d	1	1.17mi
19661 Kenosha St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	24d	1	1.21mi
11911 Lansdowne St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1350	$1,400	$1.04	43d	1	1.21mi
11776 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	964	$1,150	$1.19	11d	1	1.22mi
19639 Moross Rd Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.24mi
11689 Wayburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1142	$1,350	$1.18	43d	1	1.27mi
11611 Morang Ave Detroit, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	709	$1,040	$1.47	43d	1	1.30mi
11620 Rossiter St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,200	$1.05	17d	1	1.31mi
22030 Cushing Ave Eastpointe, MI	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	4d	1	1.32mi
11529 Roxbury St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	12d	1	1.32mi
15010 Cedargrove St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1018	$1,350	$1.33	43d	1	1.33mi
13693 Edmore Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1269	$1,550	$1.22	11d	1	1.39mi
13669 Pfent St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,374	$1.33	17d	1	1.41mi
19982 McCormick St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	866	$1,200	$1.39	3d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,500 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,500 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,500 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,500 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,500 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $47,500 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $47,500 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $47,500 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $47,500 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,500 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,500 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-04-25
    price $49,500 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    WELL KEPT PROPERTY. LOCATED NEAR EIGHT MILE AN KELLY RD ON DETROIT EAST SIDE. HOUSE IS CURRENTLY RENTED FOR $725 SINCE OCTOBER 2019. START COLLECTING MONEY RIGHT AFTER CLOSING.

14. 2026-04-24
    price $49,500 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    WELL KEPT PROPERTY. LOCATED NEAR EIGHT MILE AN KELLY RD ON DETROIT EAST SIDE. HOUSE IS CURRENTLY RENTED FOR $725 SINCE OCTOBER 2019. START COLLECTING MONEY RIGHT AFTER CLOSING.

15. 2026-03-23
    listed $52,500 Active 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    WELL KEPT PROPERTY. LOCATED NEAR EIGHT MILE AN KELLY RD ON DETROIT EAST SIDE. HOUSE IS CURRENTLY RENTED FOR $725 SINCE OCTOBER 2019. START COLLECTING MONEY RIGHT AFTER CLOSING.

16. 2026-03-23
    listed $52,500 Active 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    WELL KEPT PROPERTY. LOCATED NEAR EIGHT MILE AN KELLY RD ON DETROIT EAST SIDE. HOUSE IS CURRENTLY RENTED FOR $725 SINCE OCTOBER 2019. START COLLECTING MONEY RIGHT AFTER CLOSING.

17. 2022-08-09
    soldstatus $88,000
18. 2018-04-05
    soldstatus $9,800
19. 2018-01-26
    listed $10,000
20. 1999-02-16
    soldstatus $69,900
21. 1999-02-08
    soldstatus $69,900
22. 1998-11-23
    historical
23. 1998-09-23
    listed $69,900
24. 1992-07-02
    soldstatus $33,637

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,350 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,350 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,661
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$1,382
• Taxable income: $7,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,889
• After-tax cash flow: $6,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 34,187
• Household income: $38,966
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 93% White 3% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.80%
• Current HPI: 235.0926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+47.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $49,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $49,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-23 Listed $52,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-23 Listed $52,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-05 Sold (MLS) $9,800 REALCOMP
• 2018-01-26 Listed $10,000 REALCOMP
• 1999-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 1999-02-08 Sold (MLS) $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1998-11-23 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1998-09-23 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1992-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $33,637 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,350 · -62.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.