515 Fox Grove Rd SW · Supply, NC 28462

$234,491

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 3,049 sqft lot $148/sqft · 16% below area Est $279k · 16% under $89/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come tour 515 FOX GROVE ROAD SW! One of our new homes at Fox Run, located in Supply, North Carolina. The Newport floorplan offers a spacious and functional layout with three bedrooms, three full baths, and a versatile flex room across two levels. The open-concept first floor features a bright kitchen overlooking the dining and living areas, complete with a large island perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The private first-floor owner's suite creates a comfortable retreat, while upstairs provides additional bedrooms, bathrooms, laundry, and flexible living space ideal for guests, hobbies, or a home office. All of our homes include D. R. Horton's Home is Connected® package, an industry leading suite of smart home products that keeps homeowners connected with the people and place they value most. The technology allows homeowners to monitor and control their home from the couch or across the globe. * The photos you see here are for illustration purposes only, interior and exterior features, options, colors and selections will differ.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• 36 inch cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CENTER ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• 36 INCH CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VINYL FLOORING
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Supply — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Supply Elementary (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #625 of 1,410 statewide, top 45%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 675 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,137 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,281
• List price: $234,491
• Delta: -16.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
661 Bushy Trail Loop SW	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+6%)	1mo	$302,000	$181	76
1842 Wood Duck St SW	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-1%)	9mo	$240,000	$154	64
1449 Holden Beach Rd SW	0.79mi	3/2.0	1,571 (-1%)	3mo	$300,000	$191	55
1901 Oxpen Rd SW	1.48mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-2%)	1mo	$295,000	$190	55
1660 White Duck Ct SW	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-8%)	2mo	$252,000	$174	47
1667 White Duck Ct SW	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,509 (-5%)	9mo	$199,900	$132	47
2188 Trout Ave SW	1.47mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-6%)	10mo	$210,000	$142	40
1856 Oxpen Rd SW	1.42mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-11%)	2mo	$230,000	$164	38
1610 Stanbury Rd SW	1.48mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-15%)	0mo	$240,000	$179	34
1853 Pintail Ave SW	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+15%)	8mo	$235,000	$129	32
2232 Lakeside Ave SW	1.46mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-21%)	6mo	$193,000	$155	29
2003 Trout Ave SW	1.12mi	3/2.0	1,974 (+25%)	8mo	$253,000	$128	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-48,106
• Equity at exit: $34,963

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-54,672
• Equity at exit: $20,274

Cash invested: $65,657 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 75.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $274,880 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 84 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 675
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,230
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$293 /mo · $3,517/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$89
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,164

Max offer price $211,334

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-79	+0% $-160	+5% $-241	+10% $-322
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-238	+0% $-160	+5% $-83	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-100	base $-160	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,623
• Closing costs: $7,035
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Fox Run
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with professional managementAnnual association fee of $1,068 (approximately $89/month)Community poolSidewalksStreet lights

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterSewer availableUnderground utilitiesWater availableElectric service
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo-level homeEntry level: 1
• Construction: New constructionVinyl siding and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationHome warranty included
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porchPorchCovered patio/porchPaved road accessPrivate road frontageHas viewLighting (energy efficient)

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorRangeDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified appliancesElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHeat pump coolingThermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Walk-in closetsEntrance foyerKitchen islandWindow coveringsAccessible full bathroomSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $234,491 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $234,491 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $234,491 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $234,491 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $234,491 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $234,491 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $234,491 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $234,491 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $234,491 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $234,491 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $234,491 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    pricestatusdays on market $234,491 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-08-07
    status $232,990 Pending 49 DOM
14. 2026-08-06
    days on market $232,990 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-08-05
    days on market $232,990 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-08-04
    days on market $232,990 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-08-03
    days on market $232,990 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-07-31
    days on market $232,990 Active 43 DOM
19. 2026-07-29
    pricedays on market $232,990 Active 41 DOM
20. 2026-07-27
    days on market $230,990 Active 39 DOM
21. 2026-07-25
    days on market $230,990 Active 37 DOM
22. 2026-07-24
    days on market $230,990 Active 36 DOM
23. 2026-07-23
    days on market $230,990 Active 35 DOM
24. 2026-07-22
    days on market $230,990 Active 34 DOM
25. 2026-07-21
    days on market $230,990 Active 33 DOM
26. 2026-07-18
    days on market $230,990 Active 30 DOM
27. 2026-07-16
    days on market $230,990 Active 28 DOM
28. 2026-07-16
    days on market $230,990 Active 27 DOM
29. 2026-07-14
    days on market $230,990 Active 26 DOM
30. 2026-07-13
    days on market $230,990 Active 25 DOM
31. 2026-07-12
    days on market $230,990 Active 24 DOM
32. 2026-07-11
    days on market $230,990 Active 23 DOM
33. 2026-07-10
    days on market $230,990 Active 22 DOM
34. 2026-07-09
    days on market $230,990 Active 21 DOM

    Show marketing remark (1059 chars)

    Come tour 515 FOX GROVE ROAD SW! One of our new homes at Fox Run, located in Supply, North Carolina. The Newport floorplan offers a spacious and functional layout with three bedrooms, three full baths, and a versatile flex room across two levels. The open-concept first floor features a bright kitchen overlooking the dining and living areas, complete with a large island perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The private first-floor owner's suite creates a comfortable retreat, while upstairs provides additional bedrooms, bathrooms, laundry, and flexible living space ideal for guests, hobbies, or a home office. All of our homes include D. R. Horton's Home is Connected® package, an industry leading suite of smart home products that keeps homeowners connected with the people and place they value most. The technology allows homeowners to monitor and control their home from the couch or across the globe. * The photos you see here are for illustration purposes only, interior and exterior features, options, colors and selections will differ.

35. 2026-07-08
    days on market $230,990 Active 20 DOM
36. 2026-07-07
    days on market $230,990 Active 19 DOM
37. 2026-07-06
    days on market $230,990 Active 18 DOM
38. 2026-07-05
    days on market $230,990 Active 17 DOM
39. 2026-07-04
    days on market $230,990 Active 16 DOM
40. 2026-07-03
    days on market $230,990 Active 15 DOM
41. 2026-07-02
    days on market $230,990 Active 14 DOM
42. 2026-07-01
    days on market $230,990 Active 13 DOM
43. 2026-06-30
    days on market $230,990 Active 12 DOM
44. 2026-06-30
    price $230,990 Active 11 DOM
45. 2026-06-29
    days on market $229,490 Active 11 DOM
46. 2026-06-28
    days on market $229,490 Active 10 DOM
47. 2026-06-28
    days on market $229,490 Active 9 DOM
48. 2026-06-27
    days on market $229,490 Active 8 DOM
49. 2026-06-25
    days on market $229,490 Active 6 DOM
50. 2026-06-23
    days on market $229,490 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,135
• − Property taxes: −$3,517
• − Insurance: −$1,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − HOA: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$6,822
• Taxable loss: −$5,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,427
• After-tax cash flow: $-494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-designed floor plan, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances, making it move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Lighting — Upgrading lighting can make the home more inviting and energy-efficient ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Supply Elementary F NC #625/1,410 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Cedar Grove Middle F NC #305/475 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High West Brunswick High C- NC #281/535 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Supply

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• City population: 12,340
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Fox Run
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with professional managementAnnual association fee of $1,068 (approximately $89/month)Community poolSidewalksStreet lights

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterSewer availableUnderground utilitiesWater availableElectric service
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo-level homeEntry level: 1
• Construction: New constructionVinyl siding and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationHome warranty included
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porchPorchCovered patio/porchPaved road accessPrivate road frontageHas viewLighting (energy efficient)

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorRangeDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified appliancesElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHeat pump coolingThermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Walk-in closetsEntrance foyerKitchen islandWindow coveringsAccessible full bathroomSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-09 Listed $230,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-29 Price Changed $230,990 Hive MLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $229,490 Hive MLS