None · Johnson Park, CA 96013

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 84 Days on market

$50/sqft · 31% below area Est $72k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

older mobile on a 1/4 acre lot with nice trees mobile is not on a foundation must be a cash offer, all appliances stay washer, dryer included, fenced, gas furnace, nothing fancy comfortable and priced to sell 2 bedrooms 1 bath.

Key facts

• Gas furnace
• Fenced
• All appliances stay

Tags

• 1/4 ACRE LOT
• FENCED
• GAS FURNACE
• ALL APPLIANCES STAY
• WASHER DRYER INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $756 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fall River Joint Unified (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #335 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.80%
• DSCR: 3.88
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,006
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -30.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $40,051
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.92×
• Total profit: $96,891
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96013

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $425/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $756

Break-even live

Break-even rent $403

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $50,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    listed $50,000 Active 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    older mobile on a 1/4 acre lot with nice trees mobile is not on a foundation must be a cash offer, all appliances stay washer, dryer included, fenced, gas furnace, nothing fancy comfortable and priced to sell 2 bedrooms 1 bath.

18. 2016-02-12
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $425 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $425 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$425
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,306
• − Management: −$1,306
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $8,779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,107
• After-tax cash flow: $6,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fall River Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613470
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,991
• Composite: 26.57/100
• National rank: #7186
• State rank: #335 of 517 in CA

Livability — Johnson Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson Park, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,929

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 3% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.44%
• Current HPI: 165.4515
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $50,000 SAOR
• 2016-02-12 Listed $25,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $425 · +23.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.