141 Evergreen Church Rd · Cobbtown, GA 30420

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1930 0.43 ac lot $121/sqft · 12% above area Est $168k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom home on private lot. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances with bar in kitchen and separate dining room off kitchen. Home has split floor plan with large master bedroom. Roof and HVAC are less than 2 years old. Private backyard with deck, fenced in backyard, and a storage shed.

Key facts

• Private lot
• Large master bedroom
• Separate dining room

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BAR IN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE MASTER BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-149/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#486 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tattnall County (rural): math 29% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #103 of 174 in GA (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 46 units permitted in Tattnall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Tattnall County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $189k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,155
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: 12.40%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
390 Church St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,557 (-1%)	8mo	$168,000	$108	75
639 Evergreen Church Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-0%)	10mo	$185,000	$119	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $93,274
• Equity at exit: $160,878

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $273,211
• Equity at exit: $337,411

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30420

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,530/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,516

Max offer price $186,806

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $41	+0% $-12	+5% $-66	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-72	+0% $-12	+5% $47	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $36	base $-12	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
347 Church St Cobbtown, GA	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,500	$1.37	44d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $189,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-04-02
   price $189,000 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Updated 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom home on private lot. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances with bar in kitchen and separate dining room off kitchen. Home has split floor plan with large master bedroom. Roof and HVAC are less than 2 years old. Private backyard with deck, fenced in backyard, and a storage shed.

7. 2026-03-06
   price $194,000 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Updated 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom home on private lot. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances with bar in kitchen and separate dining room off kitchen. Home has split floor plan with large master bedroom. Roof and HVAC are less than 2 years old. Private backyard with deck, fenced in backyard, and a storage shed.

8. 2026-01-31
   listed $199,000 New 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Updated 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom home on private lot. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances with bar in kitchen and separate dining room off kitchen. Home has split floor plan with large master bedroom. Roof and HVAC are less than 2 years old. Private backyard with deck, fenced in backyard, and a storage shed.

9. 2020-06-16
   soldstatus $101,000
10. 2018-04-05
    soldstatus $89,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,530 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,739 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$208/yr (+$17/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,530
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$826
• After-tax cash flow: $677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tattnall County
• NCES district ID: 1304770
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,214
• Composite: 23.65/100
• National rank: #7843
• State rank: #103 of 174 in GA

Livability — Cobbtown

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #486
• US rank: #22585

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,521

Population outlook (Tattnall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,831 people
• By 2030: 24,823 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 25,225 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 25,678 · +3.4%
• By 2075: 24,210 · -2.5%
• By 2100: 21,404 · -13.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tattnall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.4) · D 23.1% · R 76.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.8pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -53.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.4 2020: R+48.8 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+42.2 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.31%
• Current HPI: 256.8246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+111.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $189,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $194,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2020-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,530 · +32.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.