9507 Fern Hollow Way · Montgomery Village, MD 20886

$415,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,884 sqft · Townhouse public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1974 1,925 sqft lot $220/sqft · 5% below area Est $438k · 5% under $152/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and full of flexible living space, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath garage townhome in amenity-rich Montgomery Village offers great indoor-outdoor flow and room to spread out. NEW HVAC 2026! The entry level features a welcoming foyer with coat/storage closet, garage access, and a separate bonus room with laundry—perfect for a guest space, home office, gym, playroom, or movie nights. The main living level features a sunny updated eat-in kitchen with pantry and balcony access, a convenient half bath, separate dining room, and a spacious living room filled with natural light. Sliding doors off the dining room lead to a composite wood deck with stairs down to the fenced patio and landsca

Key facts

• Fenced patio
• Landscaped backyard
• Bonus room

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• UPDATED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• TREX DECK
• FENCED PATIO
• LANDSCAPED BACKYARD
• DRESSING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $152; HOA covers common area maintenance, pool(s), recreation facility, road maintenance, snow removal and trash; Community amenities include basketball courts, bike trail, common grounds, community center, jog/walk path, picnic area, outdoor pool, tennis courts, playgrounds and other amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage (1 car); Driveway with two spaces; One additional off-street space; Concrete driveway; Total of 4 garage and parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Effective year of major renovation: 2020
• Construction: Frame construction; Other foundation details; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Rear split-rail fencing; Community outdoor pool; Pets allowed with no restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Engineered wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Breakfast area and eat-in kitchen with table space; Pantry; Basement (other type)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.2% in Montgomery Village — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#318 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whetstone Elementary (math 12% / reading 11%, grade F, #567 of 860 statewide, top 67%, 715 students, 75% FRL); Montgomery Village Middle (math 3% / reading 25%, grade F, #196 of 225 statewide, top 88%, 773 students, 80% FRL); Watkins Mill High (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #144 of 222 statewide, top 65%, 1,715 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 26% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Montgomery County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $415k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $311,168 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $438,148
• List price: $415,000
• Delta: -5.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9318 Bremerton Way	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,910 (+1%)	2mo	$425,000	$223	82
9566 Fern Hollow Way	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,765 (-6%)	2mo	$425,000	$241	79
9537 Tall Oaks Rd	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,760 (-7%)	1mo	$512,000	$291	78
20129 Waringwood Way	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,848 (-2%)	1mo	$510,000	$276	77
19765 Green Village Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,016 (+7%)	4mo	$585,000	$290	76
20125 Hob Hill Way	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,820 (-3%)	3mo	$437,000	$240	67
20130 Waringwood Way	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,100 (+12%)	1mo	$410,000	$195	61
19726 Canopy Loop Unit 329B	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,741 (-8%)	4mo	$545,145	$313	59
20003 Canebrake Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,677 (-11%)	1mo	$330,000	$197	48
19708 Preservation Mews	0.61mi	3/3.5	1,680 (-11%)	2mo	$483,500	$288	48
9201 Broadwater Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,688 (-10%)	3mo	$441,000	$261	46
19133 Broadwater Way	0.71mi	3/3.5	1,682 (-11%)	0mo	$425,000	$253	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.98% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-47,064
• Equity at exit: $100,657

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-15,915
• Equity at exit: $106,107

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20886

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,112 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,306/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$152
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,515

Max offer price $358,736

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-201	+0% $-318	+5% $-436	+10% $-553
Rent	-10% $-564	-5% $-441	+0% $-318	+5% $-196	+10% $-73
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-213	base $-318	+0.5pp $-426	+1.0pp $-535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9599 Tall Oaks Rd Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1760	$3,250	$1.85	20d	1	0.17mi
9537 Tall Oaks Rd Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1760	$3,390	$1.93	16d	1	0.18mi
9583 Tall Oaks Rd Montgomery Village, MD	4.0	2.5	1760	$3,480	$1.98	25d	1	0.18mi
19533 Sol PL Gaithersburg, MD	3.0	2.5	1978	$3,499	$1.77	45d	1	0.20mi
19753 Green Village Dr Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1936	$3,350	$1.73	3d	1	0.21mi
19753 Green Village Dr Unit 1 Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1936	$3,375	$1.74	3d	1	0.21mi
9639 Tall Oaks Rd Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1776	$3,400	$1.91	45d	1	0.23mi
9226 Weathervane Pl Unit 1 Gaithersburg, MD	3.0	3.0	1739	$2,750	$1.58	20d	1	0.24mi
9226 Weathervane Pl Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1739	$2,750	$1.58	20d	1	0.24mi
9113 Bramble Bush Ct Gaithersburg, MD	4.0	3.0	2252	$3,000	$1.33	6d	1	0.34mi
9343 Bremerton Way Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1457	$3,150	$2.16	19d	1	0.34mi
9402 Quill Pl Montgomery Village, MD	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,700	$1.29	45d	1	0.42mi
19505 Turtle Dove Ter Gaithersburg, MD	3.0	2.5	2002	$2,900	$1.45	45d	1	0.48mi
19505 Turtle Dove Ter Gaithersburg, MD	3.0	2.5	2002	$2,900	$1.45	0d	1	0.48mi
19404 Transhire Rd Montgomery Village, MD	4.0	2.5	1754	$2,600	$1.48	45d	1	0.51mi
9652 Marston Ln Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	1.5	1320	$2,700	$2.05	4d	1	0.51mi
19349 Keymar Way Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	1.5	1244	$2,200	$1.77	45d	1	0.57mi
9826 Posterity Ln Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	3.5	1600	$3,300	$2.06	9d	1	0.57mi
19708 Preservation Mews Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	3.5	1680	$3,050	$1.82	45d	1	0.60mi
9932 Tambay Ct Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1584	$2,900	$1.83	45d	1	0.61mi
20323 Swallow Point Rd Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1888	$3,250	$1.72	23d	1	0.65mi
10169 Ridgeline Dr Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,400	$1.60	45d	1	0.69mi
8851 Welbeck Way Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,972	$2.29	45d	1	0.75mi
9317 Broadwater Dr Gaithersburg, MD	3.0	3.5	1760	$2,590	$1.47	45d	1	0.77mi
8874 Welbeck Way Gaithersburg, MD	4.0	2.5	1254	$2,450	$1.95	22d	1	0.78mi
20559 Strath Haven Dr Montgomery Village, MD	2.0	2.0	1260	$2,300	$1.83	45d	1	0.80mi
20322 Butterwick Way Montgomery Village, MD	4.0	3.5	2029	$3,300	$1.63	0d	1	0.83mi
8711 Ravenglass Way Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	3.5	1470	$2,600	$1.77	45d	1	0.86mi
10225 Cove Ledge Ct Montgomery Village, MD	4.0	3.5	1724	$2,750	$1.60	45d	1	0.87mi
8785 Ravenglass Way Montgomery Village, MD	2.0	3.5	1402	$2,800	$2.00	45d	1	0.87mi
8719 Delcris Dr Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	2222	$4,000	$1.80	45d	1	1.01mi
18925 Lindenhouse Rd Gaithersburg, MD	4.0	2.5	2245	$3,390	$1.51	23d	1	1.01mi
19407 Battleridge Way Montgomery Village, MD	4.0	3.0	2307	$3,000	$1.30	45d	1	1.05mi
19002 Quail Valley Blvd Gaithersburg, MD	4.0	2.0	1618	$2,900	$1.79	45d	1	1.08mi
9923 Lake Landing Rd Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	2400	$3,000	$1.25	12d	1	1.22mi
18815 Walkers Choice Rd Montgomery Village, MD	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,725	$1.30	45d	1	1.23mi
18815 Walkers Choice Rd Montgomery Village, MD	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,895	$1.38	25d	1	1.23mi
19002 Stedwick Dr Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.5	1452	$2,650	$1.83	15d	1	1.27mi
18728 Nathans Pl Unit 1 Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,400	$1.67	45d	1	1.43mi
18624 Walkers Choice Rd Unit 6 Montgomery Village, MD	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,590	$1.78	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $152 · $1,824/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $415,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $415,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $415,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $415,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $415,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $415,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $415,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $415,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $429,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $429,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $429,900 Active 1508-char remark
16. 2024-11-11
    historical
17. 2024-10-22
    price $444,900
18. 2024-10-07
    price $449,900
19. 2024-10-01
    price $459,000
20. 2024-09-26
    listed $468,000 Active
21. 2024-09-18
    historical
22. 2006-10-03
    historical
23. 2006-08-10
    listed
24. 2001-05-23
    soldstatus $153,000
25. 1981-01-05
    soldstatus $76,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,306 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,915 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: +$609/yr (+$51/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$3,306
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,987
• − Management: −$2,987
• − HOA: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$11,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,678
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400480
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $97,191
• Composite: 35.62/100
• National rank: #4889
• State rank: #3 of 24 in MD

Livability — Montgomery Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #16536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery Village, MD
• County: Montgomery County · 961,106 people
• City population: 34,718
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 34,718
• Household income: $98,542
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1600.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,173,231 people
• By 2030: 1,237,402 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 1,365,115 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,491,592 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 1,803,893 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 2,035,619 · +73.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 23% White 23% Asian 14% Two or more races 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.3) · D 75.2% · R 21.9% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.7pp toward D · 2008: 44.6pp · 2024: 53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.3 2020: D+59.6 2016: D+55.5 2012: D+43.4 2008: D+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.98%
• Current HPI: 272.9687
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+442.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $415,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $429,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $444,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $449,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $459,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-26 Listed $468,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-18 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-10-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-08-10 Listed — MRIS
• 2001-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 1981-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,306 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.