447 Old Airport Rd · Adwolf, VA 24319

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1985 0.69 ac lot $76/sqft · 36% below area Est $187k · 36% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for an affordable home in Chilhowie? Look no further! This 3 Bedroom 2-bathroom 1568 Sqft home has tons of potential at an affordable price. The home is just minutes from town and sits on . 69 acre and has a nice front and back yard for kids or pets to enjoy.

Key facts

• Nice front yard
• Minutes from town
• 69 acre

Tags

• NICE FRONT YARD
• NICE BACK YARD
• MINUTES FROM TOWN
• 69 ACRE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.9% in Adwolf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#349 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chilhowie Elementary (math 36% / reading 49%, grade F, #862 of 1,108 statewide, top 78%, 543 students, 89% FRL); Chilhowie Middle (math 62% / reading 69%, grade A-, #116 of 342 statewide, top 35%, 306 students, 70% FRL); Chilhowie High (math 62% / reading 82%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 393 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.20%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,000
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -35.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $83,441
• Equity at exit: $108,015

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.89×
• Total profit: $231,342
• Equity at exit: $232,939

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24319

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,286 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $625/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $925

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $319	+0% $285	+5% $252	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $184	-5% $235	+0% $285	+5% $336	+10% $387
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $316	base $285	+0.5pp $254	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $119,900 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 136 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    price $119,900 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Looking for an affordable home in Chilhowie? Look no further! This 3 Bedroom 2-bathroom 1568 Sqft home has tons of potential at an affordable price. The home is just minutes from town and sits on . 69 acre and has a nice front and back yard for kids or pets to enjoy.

19. 2026-02-10
    price $129,900 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Looking for an affordable home in Chilhowie? Look no further! This 3 Bedroom 2-bathroom 1568 Sqft home has tons of potential at an affordable price. The home is just minutes from town and sits on . 69 acre and has a nice front and back yard for kids or pets to enjoy.

20. 2026-01-15
    listed $134,900 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Looking for an affordable home in Chilhowie? Look no further! This 3 Bedroom 2-bathroom 1568 Sqft home has tons of potential at an affordable price. The home is just minutes from town and sits on . 69 acre and has a nice front and back yard for kids or pets to enjoy.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $625 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$358/yr (+$30/mo · 57.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$625
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,235
• − Management: −$1,235
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $1,538
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$369
• After-tax cash flow: $3,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smyth County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103520
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $36,901
• Composite: 45.2/100
• National rank: #2672
• State rank: #89 of 131 in VA

Livability — Adwolf

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #13855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,963

Population outlook (Smyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,740 people
• By 2030: 28,593 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 26,091 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 23,629 · -20.5%
• By 2075: 18,365 · -38.2%
• By 2100: 13,697 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+33.0 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.03%
• Current HPI: 257.8732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $119,900 SWVAR
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $129,900 SWVAR
• 2026-01-15 Listed $134,900 SWVAR

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $625 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.