75125 Red Twig Way · Jacksonville, FL 32097

$415,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,126 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2023 8,163 sqft lot Est $425k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a versatile bonus room perfect for a home office, playroom, or potential 4th bedroom. This open-concept floor plan is filled with natural light and offers serene pond views from both the screened lanai and the spacious primary bedroom. The kitchen features elegant quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, a large island, and a gas stove — perfect for entertaining and everyday living. Located in a natural gas community, the home also includes the efficiency of a tankless water heater. An additional flex space situated between the guest bedrooms provides the perfect spot for a playroom, media area, or secondary living space. Located

Key facts

• Serene pond views
• Natural light
• Large island

Tags

• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SERENE POND VIEWS
• ELEGANT QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $150; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage; Has garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Built by Lennar
• Construction: Fiber cement construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rear covered screened porch; Brick patio; Patio; Sprinkler/Irrigation; Pond on the property; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Vinyl windows; Split bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (44.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (39.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,353 (44.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.85%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $425,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
75276 Pondside Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,126 (0%)	2mo	$390,000	$183	74
75735 Bayley Pl	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,116 (-0%)	2mo	$422,400	$200	73
75767 Spoonbill Ln	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,006 (-6%)	2mo	$412,500	$206	72
75631 Bayley Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,116 (-0%)	2mo	$409,350	$193	69
75547 Cloverwood Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,370 (+12%)	3mo	$430,000	$181	63
75743 Bayley Pl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,970 (-7%)	3mo	$406,138	$206	61
75737 Walking Path Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,961 (-8%)	3mo	$487,730	$249	54
75713 Walking Path Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,173 (+2%)	3mo	$435,000	$200	54
75598 Banyan Way	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,390 (+12%)	2mo	$469,290	$196	53
75705 Walking Path Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,226 (+5%)	1mo	$459,980	$207	51
75315 Plumbago	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (-15%)	1mo	$387,500	$214	50
75791 Bayley Pl	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,390 (+12%)	2mo	$461,780	$193	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $158,933
• Equity at exit: $373,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $520,350
• Equity at exit: $806,254

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,532 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$689 /mo · $8,271/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-1,051

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,863

Max offer price $229,353

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-816	-5% $-933	+0% $-1,051	+5% $-1,168	+10% $-1,286
Rent	-10% $-1,251	-5% $-1,151	+0% $-1,051	+5% $-951	+10% $-851
Rate	-1.0pp $-842	-0.5pp $-945	base $-1,051	+0.5pp $-1,158	+1.0pp $-1,268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75094 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2193	$2,495	$1.14	2d	1	0.67mi
75094 Glenspring Way Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,500	$1.22	24d	1	0.75mi
65013 Lagoon Forest Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	11d	1	0.82mi
76195 Deerwood Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2757	$2,475	$0.90	24d	1	0.89mi
75008 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	0.89mi
75045 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$2,310	$1.37	21d	1	0.91mi
75215 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2898	$2,900	$1.00	15d	1	0.91mi
75075 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,399	$1.29	5d	1	0.98mi
75346 Bridgewater Dr Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,300	$1.34	24d	1	1.10mi
70305 Winding River Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2042	$2,500	$1.22	24d	1	1.19mi
65303 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,400	$1.11	24d	1	1.28mi
65343 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$2,195	$1.28	24d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $415,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $415,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $415,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $415,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $415,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $415,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $415,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $415,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $415,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $415,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $415,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $415,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $415,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $415,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $415,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,271 · $689/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,271 · $689/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$8,271
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,431
• − Management: −$2,431
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$20,295
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,871
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $415,000 AINCAR

Property tax history

+26.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,271 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.