1508 Orchard Dr · Salem, VA 24153

$289,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1947 0.53 ac lot $142/sqft · 8% above area Est $412k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming cottage-style two story home located in the desirable Orchard Hill Subdivision in Salem! Situated on a spacious 0.58-acre level lot, this property offers both comfort and convenience. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard-perfect for pets, play, or entertaining-along with a large paved driveway providing ample parking. Inside, you'll find a huge rec room ideal for gatherings, hobbies, or home theater, along with beautiful new vinyl plank flooring that adds a fresh, modern touch. The home features 2,336 fin. sq. ft, 4 Brm, 2 Full Bath, a generously sized primary bedroom, offering a relaxing retreat at the end of the day. Additional highlights include a dedicated laundry room and a large unfin. basement, perfect for storage or future expansion. Located within walking distance to the greenway.

Key facts

• Large paved driveway
• Huge rec room
• Large unfin basement

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE PAVED DRIVEWAY
• HUGE REC ROOM
• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE UNFIN BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-499 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#104 in VA, #3,257 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Salem City Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #35 of 131 in VA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 268 units permitted in Salem city in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Salem County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $290k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,820 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $412,305
• List price: $289,950
• Delta: -27.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
723 Yorkshire St	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,088 (+2%)	6mo	$255,000	$122	84
1410 Orchard Dr	0.03mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,000 (-2%)	7mo	$228,000	$114	80
1714 Orchard Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,201 (+8%)	10mo	$390,000	$177	63
21 Upland Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,954 (-4%)	10mo	$295,950	$151	56
1204 Carolina Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,914 (-6%)	4mo	$168,000	$88	53
1112 Highland Rd	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,232 (+9%)	10mo	$276,000	$124	50
1930 Mcvitty Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,208 (+8%)	4mo	$389,900	$177	45
23 Upland Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,856 (-9%)	8mo	$224,000	$121	45
419 Diamond Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,184 (+7%)	10mo	$296,000	$136	42
1000 Catawba Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,194 (+8%)	17mo	$325,000	$148	41
1016 Carolina Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-9%)	13mo	$256,500	$139	40
420 Homeplace Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,268 (+11%)	11mo	$250,000	$110	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-71,574
• Equity at exit: $43,232

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-71,961
• Equity at exit: $25,070

Cash invested: $81,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24153

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,189/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,891

Max offer price $201,820

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,488
• Closing costs: $8,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32 Upland Dr Salem, VA	4.0	1.5	2475	$1,950	$0.79	43d	1	0.61mi
928 Ohio Ave Salem, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,622	$2.64	13d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $289,950 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,950 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,950 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,950 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,950 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,950 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,950 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,950 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,950 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,950 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,950 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,950 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,950 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,950 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,950 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    price $299,950 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Charming cottage-style two story home located in the desirable Orchard Hill Subdivision in Salem! Situated on a spacious 0.58-acre level lot, this property offers both comfort and convenience. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard-perfect for pets, play, or entertaining-along with a large paved driveway providing ample parking. Inside, you'll find a huge rec room ideal for gatherings, hobbies, or home theater, along with beautiful new vinyl plank flooring that adds a fresh, modern touch. The home features 2,336 fin. sq. ft, 4 Brm, 2 Full Bath, a generously sized primary bedroom, offering a relaxing retreat at the end of the day. Additional highlights include a dedicated laundry room and a large unfin. basement, perfect for storage or future expansion. Located within walking distance to the greenway.

17. 2026-04-20
    price $374,950 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Charming cottage-style two story home located in the desirable Orchard Hill Subdivision in Salem! Situated on a spacious 0.58-acre level lot, this property offers both comfort and convenience. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard-perfect for pets, play, or entertaining-along with a large paved driveway providing ample parking. Inside, you'll find a huge rec room ideal for gatherings, hobbies, or home theater, along with beautiful new vinyl plank flooring that adds a fresh, modern touch. The home features 2,336 fin. sq. ft, 4 Brm, 2 Full Bath, a generously sized primary bedroom, offering a relaxing retreat at the end of the day. Additional highlights include a dedicated laundry room and a large unfin. basement, perfect for storage or future expansion. Located within walking distance to the greenway.

18. 2026-03-27
    listed $399,900 Active 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Charming cottage-style two story home located in the desirable Orchard Hill Subdivision in Salem! Situated on a spacious 0.58-acre level lot, this property offers both comfort and convenience. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard-perfect for pets, play, or entertaining-along with a large paved driveway providing ample parking. Inside, you'll find a huge rec room ideal for gatherings, hobbies, or home theater, along with beautiful new vinyl plank flooring that adds a fresh, modern touch. The home features 2,336 fin. sq. ft, 4 Brm, 2 Full Bath, a generously sized primary bedroom, offering a relaxing retreat at the end of the day. Additional highlights include a dedicated laundry room and a large unfin. basement, perfect for storage or future expansion. Located within walking distance to the greenway.

19. 1985-12-15
    soldstatus $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,189 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,242
• − Property taxes: −$2,189
• − Insurance: −$6,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,169
• − Management: −$2,169
• − Depreciation: −$8,435
• Taxable loss: −$11,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,655
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103460
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,976
• Composite: 57.25/100
• National rank: #1092
• State rank: #35 of 131 in VA

Livability — Salem

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #3257

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, VA
• County: Salem City · 38,914 people
• City population: 38,914
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,914
• Household income: $74,260
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1115.0

Population outlook (Salem County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,761 people
• By 2030: 27,543 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 29,174 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 30,902 · +15.5%
• By 2075: 35,530 · +32.8%
• By 2100: 39,381 · +47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Salem

• 2024 margin: R (+19.3) · D 39.8% · R 59.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -15.5pp · 2024: -19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.3 2020: R+19.4 2016: R+24.8 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.46%
• Current HPI: 170.8986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+391.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $299,950 MLSRV
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $374,950 MLSRV
• 2026-03-27 Listed $399,900 MLSRV
• 1985-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,189 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.