Oxford Plan · Angleton, TX 77515

$253,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily · 311 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $253,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,997.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.3% in Angleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in TX, #4,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rancho Isabella El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 418 students, 68% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1262 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 61d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 311 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,511 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 311 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,997
• List price: $253,990
• Delta: -9.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3622 Atlas Point Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,776 (0%)	4mo	$289,991	$163	86
2127 Mosaic Valley Ct	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,776 (0%)	2mo	$239,990	$135	85
1906 Stargazer Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,922 (+8%)	3mo	$230,340	$120	77
3618 Atlas Point Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,924 (+8%)	2mo	$249,990	$130	74
3511 Atlas Point Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+6%)	3mo	$252,890	$135	71
1923 Stargazer Ln	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,005 (+13%)	0mo	$294,990	$147	68
3631 Atlas Point Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (-11%)	3mo	$224,990	$142	65
3179 Savannah Rose Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-6%)	1mo	$221,990	$133	64
2138 Mosaic Valley Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+7%)	3mo	$258,540	$136	64
3603 Atlas Point Ct	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,015 (+14%)	3mo	$305,990	$152	63
3187 Savannah Rose Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,689 (-5%)	1mo	$266,225	$158	59
1531 Gentle Wind Ct	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-6%)	4mo	$221,940	$133	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-54,157
• Equity at exit: $42,047

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,958
• Equity at exit: $24,382

Cash invested: $78,959 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 107 active · 64 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $274,990 ($151/sqft)
• Median days on market: 107 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77515

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 1262
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,230/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,467

Max offer price $262,694

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $-36	+0% $-133	+5% $-231	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-224	+0% $-133	+5% $-43	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-62	base $-133	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,499
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3606 Atlas Point Ln Angleton, TX	3.0	2.0	1876	$2,175	$1.16	61d	1	0.22mi
3606 Atlas Point Ln Angleton, TX	3.0	2.0	1876	$2,175	$1.16	69d	1	0.22mi
3602 Atlas Point Ln Angleton, TX	4.0	3.0	1959	$2,500	$1.28	71d	1	0.22mi
2126 Mosaic Valley Ct Angleton, TX	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,300	$1.16	82d	1	0.28mi
3167 Savannah Rose Dr Angleton, TX	4.0	2.5	1834	$1,950	$1.06	6d	1	0.55mi
4 Stadium Dr Angleton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,810	$1.70	0d	12	0.93mi
513 Robin St Angleton, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,495	$1.31	118d	1	1.22mi
1 Riverwood Circle Ct Angleton, TX	4.0	2.0	1847	$1,995	$1.08	33d	1	1.42mi
1316 Hospital Dr Angleton, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,769	$1.07	11d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $253,990 Active 311 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $253,990 Active 310 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $253,990 Active 309 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $253,990 Active 308 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $253,990 Active 307 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $253,990 Active 306 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $253,990 Active 305 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $253,990 Active 304 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $253,990 Active 303 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $253,990 Active 302 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $253,990 Active 301 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $253,990 Active 300 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $253,990 Active 299 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $253,990 Active 298 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $253,990 Active 292 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $253,990 Active 291 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $253,990 Active 289 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $251,990 Active 287 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $251,990 Active 285 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $251,990 Active 284 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $251,990 Active 283 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $251,990 Active 281 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $251,990 Active 280 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $251,990 Active 279 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $251,990 Active 278 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $251,990 Active 277 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $251,990 Active 276 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $251,990 Active 275 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $251,990 Active 274 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $251,990 Active 273 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $251,990 Active 272 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $251,990 Active 271 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $251,990 Active 270 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $251,990 Active 269 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $251,990 Active 268 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $251,990 Active 267 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $251,990 Active 266 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $251,990 Active 265 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    pricedays on market $251,990 Active 264 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $256,990 Active 262 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $256,990 Active 261 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $256,990 Active 260 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $256,990 Active 259 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $256,990 Active 256 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $256,990 Active 255 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $256,990 Active 254 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $256,990 Active 253 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $256,990 Active 251 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $256,990 Active 249 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $256,990 Active 248 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$4,230
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − Depreciation: −$8,204
• Taxable loss: −$6,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,554
• After-tax cash flow: $-47/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and add value to the property. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rancho Isabella El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Angleton J H School F TX #911/1,662 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Angleton H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Angleton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 34,088
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,088
• Household income: $88,787
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 288.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listed $285,990 Zillow