2027 Old Lake Rd · Lewisburg, TN 37091

$324,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,549 sqft · Other · 422 Days on market

Built 2025 1.06 ac lot $209/sqft · 7% below area Est $349k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction 3 bed 2 bath, on over an acre. Charming house plan with elegant craftsman country look. Primary owners suite on main level. Country living, but close to town too. Unrestricted.

Key facts

• Country living
• New construction
• Primary owners suite

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• PRIMARY OWNERS SUITE
• COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $324k).
• Recommended offer: $285k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.6% in Lewisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#284 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 31% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #58 of 139 in TN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 400 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marshall County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 422 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $324k implies a 3500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 422 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.96%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,152
• List price: $324,000
• Delta: -7.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-23,146
• Equity at exit: $48,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $17,906
• Equity at exit: $28,014

Cash invested: $90,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37091

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$405 /mo · $4,860/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,918

Max offer price $324,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $683	-5% $571	+0% $459	+5% $347	+10% $236
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $321	+0% $459	+5% $598	+10% $736
Rate	-1.0pp $623	-0.5pp $542	base $459	+0.5pp $375	+1.0pp $290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,000
• Closing costs: $9,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2541 Mooresville Hwy Lewisburg, TN	3.0	3.0	2097	$3,500	$1.67	17d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,000 Active 422 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,000 Active 421 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,000 Active 420 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,000 Active 419 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,000 Active 417 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,000 Active 413 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,000 Active 412 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $324,000 Active 411 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $324,000 Active 407 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,000 Active 406 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,000 Active 405 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,000 Active 404 DOM
13. 2026-05-03
    status Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    New Construction 3 bed 2 bath, on over an acre. Charming house plan with elegant craftsman country look. Primary owners suite on main level. Country living, but close to town too. Unrestricted.

14. 2026-05-01
    historical 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    New Construction 3 bed 2 bath, on over an acre. Charming house plan with elegant craftsman country look. Primary owners suite on main level. Country living, but close to town too. Unrestricted.

15. 2025-12-03
    status Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    New Construction 3 bed 2 bath, on over an acre. Charming house plan with elegant craftsman country look. Primary owners suite on main level. Country living, but close to town too. Unrestricted.

16. 2025-12-01
    historical 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    New Construction 3 bed 2 bath, on over an acre. Charming house plan with elegant craftsman country look. Primary owners suite on main level. Country living, but close to town too. Unrestricted.

17. 2025-08-01
    status Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    New Construction 3 bed 2 bath, on over an acre. Charming house plan with elegant craftsman country look. Primary owners suite on main level. Country living, but close to town too. Unrestricted.

18. 2025-08-01
    historical 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    New Construction 3 bed 2 bath, on over an acre. Charming house plan with elegant craftsman country look. Primary owners suite on main level. Country living, but close to town too. Unrestricted.

19. 2025-05-01
    status Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    New Construction 3 bed 2 bath, on over an acre. Charming house plan with elegant craftsman country look. Primary owners suite on main level. Country living, but close to town too. Unrestricted.

20. 2025-05-01
    historical 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    New Construction 3 bed 2 bath, on over an acre. Charming house plan with elegant craftsman country look. Primary owners suite on main level. Country living, but close to town too. Unrestricted.

21. 2025-04-18
    listed $324,000 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    New Construction 3 bed 2 bath, on over an acre. Charming house plan with elegant craftsman country look. Primary owners suite on main level. Country living, but close to town too. Unrestricted.

22. 2020-03-03
    soldstatus $9,000 Closed 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    This property has a house that needs to be torn down. Septic system was functional but no warranties as to condition today. - No sign on property

23. 2020-02-28
    status Pending 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    This property has a house that needs to be torn down. Septic system was functional but no warranties as to condition today. - No sign on property

24. 2020-02-24
    listed $12,500 Active 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    This property has a house that needs to be torn down. Septic system was functional but no warranties as to condition today. - No sign on property

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,149
• − Property taxes: −$4,860
• − Insurance: −$2,418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$9,425
• Taxable income: $428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$103
• After-tax cash flow: $5,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 4702670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,058
• Composite: 25.56/100
• National rank: #7426
• State rank: #58 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lewisburg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #20031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,991

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,222 people
• By 2030: 33,867 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 34,743 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 34,954 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 34,652 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 31,862 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.6) · D 21.2% · R 77.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -56.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.6 2020: R+50.0 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.86%
• Current HPI: 350.5306
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+2492.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-18 Listed $324,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-03 Sold (MLS) $9,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-28 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-24 Listed $12,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $58 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.