210 Trailway Rd · Middle River, MD 21220

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 783 sqft · SingleFamily · 243 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition $57/sqft · 6% above area Est $42k · 6% over ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 210 Trailway Road! This beautiful 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home is move-in ready and full of potential. You’ll love the open concept, recessed lighting throughout, central A/C, and the convenience of having your own washer and dryer. Outside, enjoy a nice yard with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining and a private driveway and a spacious shed for extra storage. A great home that’s ready for you to make it your own! MUST GET PRE-APPROVED BY WILLIAMS ESTATES- PEPPERMINT WOODS

Key facts

• Open concept
• Private driveway
• Spacious shed

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• CENTRAL A/C
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• SPACIOUS SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.7% vs local median 4.1% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.69%
• DSCR: 6.15
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $42,363
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: 6.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $65,974
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.19×
• Total profit: $140,972
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $1,215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,246	-5% $1,230	+0% $1,215	+5% $1,199	+10% $1,184
Rent	-10% $1,062	-5% $1,138	+0% $1,215	+5% $1,291	+10% $1,367
Rate	-1.0pp $1,237	-0.5pp $1,226	base $1,215	+0.5pp $1,203	+1.0pp $1,191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11550 Crossroads Cir Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,849	$3.19	2d	15	0.93mi
3736 White Pine Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	741	$1,310	$1.77	2d	21	1.07mi
6221 Greenleigh Ave Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,957	$2.79	2d	16	1.22mi
37 Alberge Ln Middle River, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$1,215	$1.31	2d	8	1.30mi
1 Alder Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	1000	$1,824	$1.82	5d	10	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $45,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    price $45,000 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    Welcome to 210 Trailway Road! This beautiful 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home is move-in ready and full of potential. You’ll love the open concept, recessed lighting throughout, central A/C, and the convenience of having your own washer and dryer. Outside, enjoy a nice yard with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining and a private driveway and a spacious shed for extra storage. A great home that’s ready for you to make it your own! MUST GET PRE-APPROVED BY WILLIAMS ESTATES- PEPPERMINT WOODS

15. 2025-11-26
    price $59,999 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    Welcome to 210 Trailway Road! This beautiful 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home is move-in ready and full of potential. You’ll love the open concept, recessed lighting throughout, central A/C, and the convenience of having your own washer and dryer. Outside, enjoy a nice yard with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining and a private driveway and a spacious shed for extra storage. A great home that’s ready for you to make it your own! MUST GET PRE-APPROVED BY WILLIAMS ESTATES- PEPPERMINT WOODS

16. 2025-10-18
    listed $65,000 Active 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    Welcome to 210 Trailway Road! This beautiful 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home is move-in ready and full of potential. You’ll love the open concept, recessed lighting throughout, central A/C, and the convenience of having your own washer and dryer. Outside, enjoy a nice yard with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining and a private driveway and a spacious shed for extra storage. A great home that’s ready for you to make it your own! MUST GET PRE-APPROVED BY WILLIAMS ESTATES- PEPPERMINT WOODS

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $14,737
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,537
• After-tax cash flow: $11,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home requires significant repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Immediate attention to the exterior, roof, and landscaping is recommended.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Age and potential leaks
• Major flooring — Worn and possibly subfloor issues
• Major interior walls/paint — Worn and possibly structural issues
• Major bathrooms — Worn and possibly plumbing issues
• Major kitchen — Worn and possibly plumbing issues
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Age and potential inefficiency
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and needs trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard improves curb appeal and property value
• Both roof and siding repairs — Addressing major repairs improves structural integrity and property value
• Both HVAC and plumbing updates — Modernizing systems increases comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Age and potential leaks	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and possibly subfloor issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Worn and possibly structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · Worn and possibly plumbing issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · Worn and possibly plumbing issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Age and potential inefficiency	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and needs trimming	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both roof and siding repairs — Addressing major repairs improves structural integrity and property value ↑
• Both HVAC and plumbing updates — Modernizing systems increases comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-30.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $59,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-18 Listed $65,000 BRIGHT MLS