13514 SW Cinder Dr · Crooked River Ranch, OR 97760

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1995 1.27 ac lot $240/sqft · 24% below area Est $373k · 24% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price to sell quick. ''SOLD AS IS'' All appliances included. A little elbow grease and you have instant sweat equity. This 3 bedroom 2 bath 1188 sqft home has great potential. Has a detached insulated with power and a window A/C kraft room, metal carport and several metal sheds. Come make this home yours and enjoy the amenities Crooked River Ranch has to offer such as golf course, pool, parks, walking paths, sports courts, riding arena and restaurants.

Key facts

• Pool
• Parks
• Metal carport

Tags

• DETACHED INSULATED KRAFT ROOM
• METAL CARPORT
• METAL SHEDS
• GOLF COURSE
• POOL
• PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($29/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Crooked River Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Redmond SD 2J (town): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 58 in OR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Terrebonne Community School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #309 of 412 statewide, top 77%, 299 students, 35% FRL); Redmond High School (936 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $285k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,000 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,662
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -23.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13514 SW Cinder Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	0mo	$275,000	$231	100
8361 SW High Cone Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+9%)	1mo	$390,000	$301	66
10570 SW Shad Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+9%)	7mo	$325,000	$251	45
14414 SW Noah Butte Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-7%)	19mo	$360,000	$327	41
10376 SW Shad Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+9%)	22mo	$439,000	$339	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-46,091
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-40,185
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97760

• Home prices YoY: -14.9%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,816/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,297

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $83	+0% $2	+5% $-78	+10% $-159
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-88	+0% $2	+5% $93	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $75	base $2	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6690 Old Ranch House Rd Terrebonne, OR	4.0	1.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	45d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Price to sell quick. ''SOLD AS IS'' All appliances included. A little elbow grease and you have instant sweat equity. This 3 bedroom 2 bath 1188 sqft home has great potential. Has a detached insulated with power and a window A/C kraft room, metal carport and several metal sheds. Come make this home yours and enjoy the amenities Crooked River Ranch has to offer such as golf course, pool, parks, walking paths, sports courts, riding arena and restaurants.

2. 2026-04-09
   price $285,000 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Price to sell quick. ''SOLD AS IS'' All appliances included. A little elbow grease and you have instant sweat equity. This 3 bedroom 2 bath 1188 sqft home has great potential. Has a detached insulated with power and a window A/C kraft room, metal carport and several metal sheds. Come make this home yours and enjoy the amenities Crooked River Ranch has to offer such as golf course, pool, parks, walking paths, sports courts, riding arena and restaurants.

3. 2026-03-23
   listed $295,000 Active 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Price to sell quick. ''SOLD AS IS'' All appliances included. A little elbow grease and you have instant sweat equity. This 3 bedroom 2 bath 1188 sqft home has great potential. Has a detached insulated with power and a window A/C kraft room, metal carport and several metal sheds. Come make this home yours and enjoy the amenities Crooked River Ranch has to offer such as golf course, pool, parks, walking paths, sports courts, riding arena and restaurants.

4. 2006-06-29
   soldstatus $185,000
5. 2006-06-28
   soldstatus $185,000 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   Easy care landscape, fresh paint inside and a covered front patio are only the beginning. 1188 sq ft manufactured home has 3 bedrooms & 2 baths, a propane stove and heat pump. Neat and clean and ready to be lived in. Located on a paved road less than 2 miles from the CRR fire department.

6. 2006-06-17
   historical 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   Easy care landscape, fresh paint inside and a covered front patio are only the beginning. 1188 sq ft manufactured home has 3 bedrooms & 2 baths, a propane stove and heat pump. Neat and clean and ready to be lived in. Located on a paved road less than 2 miles from the CRR fire department.

7. 2006-05-31
   listed $189,000 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   Easy care landscape, fresh paint inside and a covered front patio are only the beginning. 1188 sq ft manufactured home has 3 bedrooms & 2 baths, a propane stove and heat pump. Neat and clean and ready to be lived in. Located on a paved road less than 2 miles from the CRR fire department.

8. 2006-03-06
   soldstatus $130,000
9. 2006-02-05
   historical
10. 2006-01-02
    listed $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,764 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$949/yr (+$79/mo · 52.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,816
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$4,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,179
• After-tax cash flow: $1,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Redmond SD 2J
• NCES district ID: 4110350
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 28.72/100
• National rank: #6682
• State rank: #28 of 58 in OR

Livability — Crooked River Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crooked River Ranch, OR
• City population: 8,185
• Population (ZIP): 8,185

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,040 people
• By 2030: 24,631 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 25,499 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 25,801 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 25,682 · +6.8%
• By 2100: 22,222 · -7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 33.6% · R 63.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.04%
• Current HPI: 470.078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+103.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $285,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-23 Listed $295,000 MLSCO
• 2006-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-28 Sold (MLS) $185,000 MLSCO
• 2006-06-17 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2006-05-31 Listed $189,000 MLSCO
• 2006-03-06 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MLSCO
• 2006-02-05 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2006-01-02 Listed $139,900 MLSCO

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,816 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.