21 Cambridge Cir Unit B · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$224,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,391 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition Est $285k · 21% under $437/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 21B Cambridge Circle in the highly sought-after Leisure Village West adult community in Manchester! This rare Winfield model offers a spacious layout featuring a large Great Room, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy a maintenance-free lifestyle with outstanding community amenities including an executive golf course, practice putting green, three recreation centers, two swimming pools, hot tub, stocked fishing lake, fitness activities, clubs, social events, and much more. Basic cable is included in the association fees. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, healthcare facilities, major highways, and just minutes from the beautiful Jersey Shore beaches. Experience the

Key facts

• Two swimming pools
• Hot tub
• Stocked fishing lake

Tags

• EXECUTIVE GOLF COURSE
• PRACTICE PUTTING GREEN
• THREE RECREATION CENTERS
• TWO SWIMMING POOLS
• HOT TUB
• STOCKED FISHING LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA (Leisure Village West) with monthly fee of $437; HOA covers trash, common area, fire/liability, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium (WINFIELD model); Living area approximately 1391
• Construction: Condominium construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Attached property (condominium)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Light fixtures included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Light Fixtures, Stove, Refrigerator included; Fireplace; Ceramic tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.8% in Leisure Village West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,526 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.97%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,155
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21A Buckingham Dr N	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,381 (-1%)	0mo	$385,000	$279	86
29A Gramercy Ln	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,486 (+7%)	1mo	$232,000	$156	80
647C Dunstable Ct Unit C	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,468 (+6%)	2mo	$300,000	$204	71
655-A Pulham Ct	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,243 (-11%)	1mo	$225,000	$181	66
949A Liverpool Cir	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,381 (-1%)	2mo	$295,000	$214	65
10 Saint Paul Pl	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,426 (+2%)	1mo	$292,500	$205	64
5 Elmswell Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,465 (+5%)	2mo	$385,000	$263	61
20 Woodstock Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,426 (+2%)	2mo	$409,899	$287	61
826B Liverpool Cir	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,468 (+6%)	1mo	$279,000	$190	59
833 Westminster Ct Unit C	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,468 (+6%)	2mo	$285,000	$194	57
945A Liverpool Cir Unit A	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,243 (-11%)	0mo	$248,500	$200	52
715C Wooton Ct	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,243 (-11%)	2mo	$284,000	$228	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-16,168
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $12,896
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,374/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$437
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,521

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $469	-5% $391	+0% $313	+5% $236	+10% $158
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $198	+0% $313	+5% $429	+10% $544
Rate	-1.0pp $427	-0.5pp $371	base $313	+0.5pp $255	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
52 Rockingham Way #1 Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.5	1848	$3,275	$1.77	44d	1	0.73mi
616 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1508	$3,100	$2.06	3d	1	0.77mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	44d	1	0.82mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	0d	1	0.88mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	44d	1	1.00mi
19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1551	$2,400	$1.55	0d	1	1.06mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	23d	1	1.07mi
1540 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,900	$2.15	44d	1	1.24mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	44d	1	1.24mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	1.38mi
1008 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1656	$3,400	$2.05	0d	1	1.41mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	0d	6	1.43mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	0d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $437 · $5,244/yr
• Likely covers: cablepool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $224,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,374
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,801
• − Management: −$2,801
• − HOA: −$5,244
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable income: $524
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$126
• After-tax cash flow: $3,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good roof, flooring, and systems. The landscaping is well-maintained, and the curb appeal is good. The kitchen and bathrooms need some updates to increase the resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Painting the exterior walls can improve the curb appeal and make the house look more attractive to potential buyers.
• Both Replace the flooring — Replacing the hardwood flooring with a more modern material can increase the resale value and rental value of the house.
• Both Update the kitchen cabinets — Updating the kitchen cabinets can increase the resale value and rental value of the house, as it can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Painting the exterior walls can improve the curb appeal and make the house look more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Replace the flooring — Replacing the hardwood flooring with a more modern material can increase the resale value and rental value of the house. ↑
• Both Update the kitchen cabinets — Updating the kitchen cabinets can increase the resale value and rental value of the house, as it can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $224,900 MOMLS