8891 Wingfield · Lumberton, TX 77657

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,319 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2008 $136/sqft · 9% below area Est $198k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath brick home with a 2-car garage situated on a slab in the highly sought-after Lumberton ISD. Nestled on approximately 0.72 acres, this property offers over 1,300 square feet of living space and plenty of room to make it your own. The home features a functional layout with great potential, plus a large workshop perfect for storage, hobbies, or projects. With a little TLC, this property could truly shine—ideal for investors or buyers looking to add personal touches. Priced to sell—don’t miss this opportunity

Key facts

• 2 garage spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,301 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,201
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -9.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8483 Wingfield Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	3mo	$225,000	$156	66
8801 Mitchell Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+2%)	17mo	$200,000	$148	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-37,195
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-42,289
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$439 /mo · $5,269/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,846

Max offer price $157,301

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9006 Duke St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,400	$1.32	43d	1	0.35mi
8445 Harvard St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1295	$1,790	$1.38	23d	1	0.44mi
9440 Hickory St Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	43d	1	0.62mi
9440 Hickory St Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	23d	1	0.62mi
9984 Golden Ln Lumberton, TX	2.0	1.5	1001	$1,575	$1.57	13d	1	1.16mi
110 Azaelia Dr Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1380	$1,650	$1.20	13d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $180,000 Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $180,000 Active 555-char remark
3. 2026-03-18
   listed $180,000 Active
4. 2012-10-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,269 · $439/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,269 · $439/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$5,269
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$4,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,086
• After-tax cash flow: $-456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Delisted — BBOR
• 2026-05-30 Listed $180,000 BBOR
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $150,000 BBOR
• 2026-05-19 Listed $180,000 BBOR
• 2026-03-18 Listed $180,000 BBOR
• 2012-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,269 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.