3251 Marsh Rd · Smith Island, MD 21824

$74,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 107 Days on market

Built 1940 0.31 ac lot $83/sqft · 16% below area Est $89k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the serene island village of Rhodes Point, Maryland, this waterfront property offers breathtaking views of the Chesapeake Bay from the front yard, as well as vast wetland and marshland views from the backyard. Buyer to note the home has been vacant since 2019, therefore requiring significant repairs and renovations. The main floor features a kitchen, dining area, family room and first floor bedroom, while upstairs you'll find three additional rooms providing ample sleeping space. Outside in the backyard the property includes a 10x12 storage shed and plenty of mature trees. There's also a 12X12 shanty located near the water’s edge in the front of the property. Additionally, there are four pilings/poles located in deep water at the edge of the canal. This is an ideal opportunity to embrace the laid-back island lifestyle and witness the stunning sunsets over the Chesapeake Bay.

Key facts

• 10x12 storage shed
• Vast wetland views
• Four pilings

Tags

• WATERFRONT PROPERTY
• VAST WETLAND VIEWS
• 10X12 STORAGE SHED
• MATURE TREES
• FOUR PILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-524/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $67k (10.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#391 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,187 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.91%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,810
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -15.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $1,888
• Equity at exit: $28,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $16,999
• Equity at exit: $40,860

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21824

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $628/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $67,187

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-03-03
    listed $74,900 Active 906-char remark

    Show marketing remark (906 chars)

    Nestled in the serene island village of Rhodes Point, Maryland, this waterfront property offers breathtaking views of the Chesapeake Bay from the front yard, as well as vast wetland and marshland views from the backyard. Buyer to note the home has been vacant since 2019, therefore requiring significant repairs and renovations. The main floor features a kitchen, dining area, family room and first floor bedroom, while upstairs you'll find three additional rooms providing ample sleeping space. Outside in the backyard the property includes a 10x12 storage shed and plenty of mature trees. There's also a 12X12 shanty located near the water’s edge in the front of the property. Additionally, there are four pilings/poles located in deep water at the edge of the canal. This is an ideal opportunity to embrace the laid-back island lifestyle and witness the stunning sunsets over the Chesapeake Bay.

16. 2024-07-23
    soldstatus $50,000
17. 2024-06-28
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Waterfront property located in the quiet village of Rhodes Point, Maryland. Enjoy panoramic views of the bay from the front yard and canal and wetland views from the backyard. The home has not been occupied since 2019 and is in need of some major repairs/renovations. There is a bedroom on the main floor and 3 more rooms upstairs for additional sleeping space. The listing includes a 10x12 storage shed in the backyard and a shanty out by the water in the front of the property. There are additional pilings/poles located in deep water on the edge of the canal. This is a great opportunity to enjoy the slow pace of island life and spectacular sunsets over the Chesapeake Bay.

18. 2024-06-15
    status Pending 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Waterfront property located in the quiet village of Rhodes Point, Maryland. Enjoy panoramic views of the bay from the front yard and canal and wetland views from the backyard. The home has not been occupied since 2019 and is in need of some major repairs/renovations. There is a bedroom on the main floor and 3 more rooms upstairs for additional sleeping space. The listing includes a 10x12 storage shed in the backyard and a shanty out by the water in the front of the property. There are additional pilings/poles located in deep water on the edge of the canal. This is a great opportunity to enjoy the slow pace of island life and spectacular sunsets over the Chesapeake Bay.

19. 2024-05-29
    status Active 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Waterfront property located in the quiet village of Rhodes Point, Maryland. Enjoy panoramic views of the bay from the front yard and canal and wetland views from the backyard. The home has not been occupied since 2019 and is in need of some major repairs/renovations. There is a bedroom on the main floor and 3 more rooms upstairs for additional sleeping space. The listing includes a 10x12 storage shed in the backyard and a shanty out by the water in the front of the property. There are additional pilings/poles located in deep water on the edge of the canal. This is a great opportunity to enjoy the slow pace of island life and spectacular sunsets over the Chesapeake Bay.

20. 2024-05-24
    status Pending 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Waterfront property located in the quiet village of Rhodes Point, Maryland. Enjoy panoramic views of the bay from the front yard and canal and wetland views from the backyard. The home has not been occupied since 2019 and is in need of some major repairs/renovations. There is a bedroom on the main floor and 3 more rooms upstairs for additional sleeping space. The listing includes a 10x12 storage shed in the backyard and a shanty out by the water in the front of the property. There are additional pilings/poles located in deep water on the edge of the canal. This is a great opportunity to enjoy the slow pace of island life and spectacular sunsets over the Chesapeake Bay.

21. 2024-05-18
    listed $65,000 Active 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Waterfront property located in the quiet village of Rhodes Point, Maryland. Enjoy panoramic views of the bay from the front yard and canal and wetland views from the backyard. The home has not been occupied since 2019 and is in need of some major repairs/renovations. There is a bedroom on the main floor and 3 more rooms upstairs for additional sleeping space. The listing includes a 10x12 storage shed in the backyard and a shanty out by the water in the front of the property. There are additional pilings/poles located in deep water on the edge of the canal. This is a great opportunity to enjoy the slow pace of island life and spectacular sunsets over the Chesapeake Bay.

22. 2019-08-21
    soldstatus $45,000
23. 2019-08-15
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed
24. 2019-08-06
    status Pending
25. 2018-09-25
    price $45,900
26. 2018-04-24
    listed $59,000 Active
27. 1998-10-30
    soldstatus $45,000
28. 1998-08-28
    historical
29. 1997-12-23
    listed $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $628 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $722 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$628
• − Insurance: −$5,493
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,044
• − Management: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable loss: −$1,532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$368
• After-tax cash flow: $-156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Smith Island

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #391
• US rank: #21397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smith Island, MD
• City population: 340
• Population (ZIP): 234

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Current HPI: 109.4174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+49.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $74,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-28 Sold (MLS) $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-29 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-18 Listed $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-15 Sold (MLS) $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-25 Price Changed $45,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-24 Listed $59,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1998-08-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-12-23 Listed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $628 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.