2611 E 10th Ave · Tampa, FL 33605

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,254 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1999 5,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Investor Special. Interior is dated and also requires updating and repair. Will require new kitchen, appliances, bathrooms, flooring, doors, fixtures, paint, new roof, demo and clean out, some exterior work and repair, landscaping, etc

Key facts

• 5,500 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 190 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,250/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $180k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.52%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $108,696
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $298,218
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33605

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$444 /mo · $5,329/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,935

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $300	+0% $249	+5% $198	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $160	+0% $249	+5% $338	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $295	base $249	+0.5pp $202	+1.0pp $155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2312 E 9th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,200	$2.18	25d	1	0.16mi
2312 E 10th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1520	$2,400	$1.58	18d	1	0.16mi
2504 E 12th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,500	$1.76	5d	1	0.16mi
2312 E 8th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,500	$1.76	12d	1	0.17mi
2308 E 15th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,895	$2.02	15d	1	0.34mi
2703 N 24th St Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1164	$2,295	$1.97	0d	1	0.39mi
2703 N 24th St Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1164	$2,295	$1.97	15d	1	0.39mi
2409 E 2nd Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$2,787	$3.16	0d	20	0.40mi
2002 E 5th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,795	$1.69	5d	1	0.45mi
2006 E 4th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	15d	1	0.46mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,995	$1.62	25d	1	0.47mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Unit 301 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$2,050	$1.89	25d	1	0.47mi
3101 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	4d	1	0.49mi
2214 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,295	$1.93	5d	1	0.50mi
3411 E 9th Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	1.0	1116	$1,700	$1.52	25d	1	0.52mi
2006 E Columbus Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	896	$1,495	$1.67	2d	1	0.52mi
2002 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1084	$2,400	$2.21	5d	1	0.57mi
1817 E 4th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	5d	1	0.60mi
2708 N 19th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,200	$1.31	17d	1	0.62mi
1808 E Columbus Dr #5 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1620	$1,900	$1.17	3d	1	0.63mi
3114 E 21st Ave Unit 1328494P Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1614	$4,781	$2.96	0d	1	0.66mi
1716 E Columbus Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	924	$1,800	$1.95	25d	1	0.68mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	4d	1	0.71mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	5d	1	0.71mi
1807 E 20th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$2,900	$2.56	25d	1	0.74mi
2610 Durham St Apt B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,250	$1.15	15d	1	0.76mi
2810 N 16th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1066	$2,550	$2.39	13d	1	0.85mi
2907 N 15th St Unit D Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	888	$1,850	$2.08	5d	1	0.92mi
2205 Chipco St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	25d	1	0.95mi
1520 E 21st Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,350	$1.41	17d	1	0.95mi
3107 Chipco St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,799	$1.42	25d	1	0.97mi
2019 Corrine St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	25d	1	0.98mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	25d	1	0.99mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	11d	1	0.99mi
1221 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	25d	1	1.01mi
3517 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	25d	1	1.01mi
3021 Sanchez St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	25d	1	1.01mi
E 2nd Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1108	$4,515	$4.07	25d	2	1.02mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,995	$1.45	22d	1	1.04mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,875	$1.36	3d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-07-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-15
   listed $179,900 Active
3. 2000-09-12
   soldstatus $61,000
4. 2000-09-12
   soldstatus $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,329 · $444/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,329 · $444/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$5,329
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$84
• After-tax cash flow: $2,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,030
• Household income: $36,975
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1374.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% White 17% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.43%
• Current HPI: 494.1871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+194.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,329 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.