517 W Walnut St · Junction City, KS 66441

$174,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,383 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1940 9,660 sqft lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Nice-sized backyard
• Gas fireplace
• Local amenities

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• MULTI-GENERATIONAL SUITE
• NICE-SIZED BACKYARD
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($520/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#266 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Geary County Schools (town): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #60 of 169 in KS (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 93 units permitted in Geary County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Geary County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,032 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-20,350
• Equity at exit: $26,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,395
• Equity at exit: $15,088

Cash invested: $48,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66441

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,987/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $174,500

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $93	+0% $43	+5% $-6	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $-21	+0% $43	+5% $107	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $88	base $43	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,625
• Closing costs: $5,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,500 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,500 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $174,500 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $174,500 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $174,500 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $174,500 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-11
   listed $174,500 Active 809-char remark
8. 2026-03-30
   price $179,000
9. 2026-01-06
   price $189,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,987 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,987 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,775
• − Property taxes: −$2,987
• − Insurance: −$872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$5,076
• Taxable loss: −$2,378
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$571
• After-tax cash flow: $1,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Geary County Schools
• NCES district ID: 2007890
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,319
• Composite: 30.2/100
• National rank: #6306
• State rank: #60 of 169 in KS

Livability — Junction City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #11965

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Junction City, KS
• County: Geary County · 25,828 people
• City population: 25,828
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• Population (ZIP): 25,828
• Household income: $59,522
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 950.0

Population outlook (Geary County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,364 people
• By 2030: 38,234 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 39,727 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 40,314 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 44,283 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 46,935 · +25.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Geary

• 2024 margin: R (+17.6) · D 40.1% · R 57.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.6 2020: R+14.7 2016: R+21.7 2012: R+14.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.25%
• Current HPI: 137.9936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.05%
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $179,000 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $189,000 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,987 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.