6748 Holly Heath Dr · Progress Village, FL 33578

$249,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2013 1,984 sqft lot $330/mo HOA · 14% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Carefree living at its best. Enjoy each day in this easy maintenance townhome that's nestled in a quiet community. This property offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,400 square feet of living space and a 1 car attached garage. The kitchen has ceramic tile floors, granite counter tops, stainless appliances, closet pantry and center island. Easy flow into the dining and living room and is perfect for entertaining and family gatherings. The master bedroom has a ceiling fan and a private ensuite bath that features double sink vanity, tile floors, and separate shower. The second bathroom has a large vanity and tile floors. Enjoy your morning coffee in your private screened porch with ceiling fan for added comfort. Other great features in this home are roller shades in lanai, water softening system, custom pantry shelving, new garbage disposal and spacious laundry room with storage cabinets and drying bar. Walking distance to community pool, tropical landscaping and easy access to I-75 and crosstown expressway. Convenient to schools, shopping and great restaurants. Low HOA's that include cable, internet, water & trash. Move in ready for your enjoyment.

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Easy access to i-75
• $330 HOA

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• TRIPLE SLIDING GLASS DOOR
• NEARBY WILLIAMS PARK BOAT RAMP
• EASY ACCESS TO I-75

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual HOA/fees $3,960; Property listed as unfurnished
• Financial info: Other annual assessment $564; Annual taxes reported
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Castle Management Group; Monthly HOA fee $330; HOA covers cable TV, internet, trash and water; Community pool; Association recreation (owned); Pets allowed; CDD present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1-car garage (12 x 10)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; Two levels; Faces east; Located in a planned development (PD); Homesteaded
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of Oak Creek community
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Screened patio/porch; Sidewalk; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#298 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spoto High School (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #434 of 667 statewide, top 66%, 1,823 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 559 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,986 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-56,362
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-87,208
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33578

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 559
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,432 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,816/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$330
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,611

Max offer price $224,986

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7007 Towne Lake Rd Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,800	$2.71	24d	1	0.08mi
6705 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$2,150	$1.51	14d	1	0.11mi
6978 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,100	$1.50	24d	1	0.16mi
6614 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	3.0	1540	$2,350	$1.53	24d	1	0.17mi
7012 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.18mi
6925 Towering Spruce Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,795	$1.53	14d	1	0.34mi
6925 Towering Spruce Dr Unit 1 Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,895	$1.61	24d	1	0.34mi
8317 Moccasin Trail Dr Unit 1227829P Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$4,525	$2.88	16d	1	0.37mi
7514 Forest Mere Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$4,000	$2.33	24d	1	0.38mi
8530 Quarter Horse Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,000	$1.56	10d	1	0.40mi
8530 Quarter Horse Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,000	$1.56	24d	1	0.40mi
8220 Midnight Sun Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,900	$1.49	24d	1	0.41mi
8969 Indigo Trail Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1707	$2,200	$1.29	24d	1	0.49mi
8959 Indigo Trail Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,200	$1.23	24d	1	0.50mi
8933 Indigo Trail Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,295	$1.29	16d	1	0.52mi
8868 Indigo Trail Loop Unit 8868 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1707	$2,300	$1.35	3d	1	0.57mi
6768 Breezy Palm Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1298	$1,800	$1.39	20d	1	0.59mi
8549 Deer Chase Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,300	$1.44	16d	1	0.60mi
7046 Grand Elm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	17d	1	0.61mi
7113 Grand Elm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,900	$1.36	10d	1	0.62mi
7014 Grand Elm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1374	$2,090	$1.52	24d	1	0.62mi
6714 Breezy Palm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1609	$2,200	$1.37	4d	1	0.63mi
9092 Moonlit Meadows Loop Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,850	$1.82	13d	1	0.64mi
8683 Holly Grove Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1525	$2,299	$1.51	2d	6	0.65mi
9120 Moonlit Meadows Loop Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1260	$1,850	$1.47	24d	1	0.65mi
7102 Summer Holly Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1576	$2,100	$1.33	24d	1	0.65mi
8828 Kanawha Rd Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	24d	1	0.94mi
9515 Grovedale Cir #101 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	1.15mi
9520 Amberdale Ct #101 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$2,150	$1.87	4d	1	1.16mi
6118 Magnolia Park Blvd Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,600	$1.68	24d	1	1.21mi
6425 Cypressdale Dr #101 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,950	$1.69	24d	1	1.27mi
6101 Innovation Way Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1089	$2,250	$2.07	4d	12	1.30mi
5940 Sweet Birch Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$2,500	$1.61	11d	1	1.31mi
9736 Carlsdale Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1575	$1,850	$1.17	14d	1	1.33mi
9519 Newdale Way #201 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,650	$1.43	24d	1	1.37mi
9538 Newdale Way #101 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,895	$1.65	24d	1	1.38mi
9520 Newdale Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,700	$1.48	1d	1	1.40mi
9711 Magnolia View Ct Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$2,682	$2.51	2d	31	1.40mi
8825 Oak St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1086	$2,500	$2.30	24d	1	1.46mi
10124 Cannon Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,450	$1.36	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $330 · $3,960/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashinternetcablelandscapingpool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 695-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $249,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,816 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,816 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,816
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,335
• − Management: −$2,335
• − HOA: −$3,960
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,775
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,386
• After-tax cash flow: $-306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Progress Village

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #5091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Progress Village, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 60,651
• Household income: $85,921
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 23% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.42%
• Current HPI: 326.0368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+73.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-31 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-13 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-19 Sold (MLS) $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-03 Listed $144,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,816 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.