2592 Wagon Tongue Dr · Mobile, AL 36695

$189,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,550 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1975 0.40 ac lot Est $347k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special in the heart of Carriage Hills! This 2500 sq ft 2-story home sits on a corner lot and features a fenced in back yard with a saltwater pool and storage shed. Roof and AC are approx 2 years old, this property needs flooring, paint and cosmetic updates to kitchen and baths to make this property shine! Side entry double garage! A great opportunity to make it your own!

Key facts

• Saltwater pool
• Storage shed
• Fenced in back yard

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• SALTWATER POOL
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $802 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Olive J Dodge Elementary School (math 6% / reading 35%, grade F, #453 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 875 students, 67% FRL); Wp Davidson High School (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #37 of 305 statewide, top 12%, 1,535 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.09%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2592 Wagon Tongue Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,550 (0%)	0mo	$166,000	$65	100
2700 Old Dobbin Dr E	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,265 (-11%)	8mo	$250,000	$110	67
7024 Doppel Ln	0.61mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,528 (-1%)	2mo	$345,000	$136	64
6386 Oakleigh Way	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,473 (-3%)	8mo	$368,000	$149	62
7165 Londonderry Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,491 (-2%)	4mo	$410,000	$165	59
6609 Footmans Ct	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,247 (-12%)	4mo	$229,900	$102	56
2720 Weston Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,431 (-5%)	4mo	$466,750	$192	53
2116 Dorchester Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,479 (-3%)	7mo	$321,000	$129	52
6415 Falconwood Ct	0.66mi	4/3.5	2,642 (+4%)	10mo	$302,000	$114	51
2825 Weston Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,350 (-8%)	3mo	$459,319	$195	49
2212 Fieldstone Ct	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,783 (+9%)	12mo	$378,000	$136	43
2305 Cedar Ky	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,254 (-12%)	8mo	$270,000	$120	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $12,483
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $46,471
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36695

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2004 Pine Needle Dr E Mobile, AL	5.0	2.5	2900	$3,800	$1.31	43d	1	1.15mi
1997 Bradshire Dr Mobile, AL	4.0	3.0	2834	$2,200	$0.78	43d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $189,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,569
• − Management: −$2,569
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $7,014
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,683
• After-tax cash flow: $7,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 52,690
• Household income: $76,040
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1619.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 23% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.28%
• Current HPI: 193.1651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.41%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-20 Listed $189,900 GCMLS AL