4966 Don Julio · San Antonio, TX 78222

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 2025 5,227 sqft lot $170/sqft · 16% below area Est $285k · 16% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*MOVE IN READY & ALL APPLIANCES/GARAGE DOOR OPENER INCLUDED!* Built by Empires Homes the Duval plan offers 1408 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space in the desirable Agave community. This one-story home blends modern style with everyday comfort, creating a layout that feels both functional and inviting. The open-concept design provides a seamless flow between the living, dining and kitchen areas perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. The kitchen features ample counter space and sleek finishes. The bedrooms offer peaceful retreats, while smart storage solutions maximize space throughout the home. Every detail is designed with practicality and style in mind. Located in East Central ISD with convenient access to major highways and style in mind. Just a short drive to shopping centers, entertainment, downtown, Fort Sam & much more!

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $178,542 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.02%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,707
• List price: $239,990
• Delta: -15.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4834 Sahara Vlys	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-1%)	1mo	$262,385	$189	80
4963 Mala Vida	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+4%)	8mo	$269,990	$184	80
4818 Sahara Vlys	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-1%)	3mo	$255,730	$184	78
8404 Aloe Vera Trce	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+6%)	1mo	$279,990	$189	78
8212 Foxtail Frk	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+6%)	3mo	$274,990	$185	74
4707 Artichoke Flds	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-1%)	3mo	$256,455	$185	72
9011 Sand Dune	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-1%)	7mo	$254,385	$183	72
4715 Sahara Vlys	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-1%)	10mo	$251,070	$181	70
4975 Mala Vida	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-11%)	7mo	$259,900	$207	70
8433 Roadrunner Psge	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,286 (-9%)	8mo	$263,990	$205	66
5039 Agave Blue Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-8%)	9mo	$264,990	$205	61
8550 Redhawk Loop	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-4%)	10mo	$276,834	$206	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-54,283
• Equity at exit: $35,783

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-59,759
• Equity at exit: $20,750

Cash invested: $67,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78222

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,141

Max offer price $199,324

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,998
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8563 Redhawk Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,800	$1.01	14d	1	0.53mi
7814 Annex St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,600	$1.10	24d	1	0.66mi
7722 Blue Gulf Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,575	$1.08	24d	1	0.77mi
7246 Meadow Acres San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,470	$1.01	24d	1	0.87mi
5727 Coopers Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$2,400	$2.13	21d	1	0.98mi
3618 Booker Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,475	$1.21	43d	1	1.37mi
6818 Fort Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1866	$1,895	$1.02	24d	1	1.42mi
5107 Moni Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,585	$1.04	24d	1	1.45mi
10319 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,500	$0.98	4d	1	1.46mi
3514 Booker Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$4,000	$2.40	1d	1	1.47mi
3526 Manoway Bay San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	21d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 870-char remark

   Show marketing remark (870 chars)

   *MOVE IN READY & ALL APPLIANCES/GARAGE DOOR OPENER INCLUDED!* Built by Empires Homes the Duval plan offers 1408 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space in the desirable Agave community. This one-story home blends modern style with everyday comfort, creating a layout that feels both functional and inviting. The open-concept design provides a seamless flow between the living, dining and kitchen areas perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. The kitchen features ample counter space and sleek finishes. The bedrooms offer peaceful retreats, while smart storage solutions maximize space throughout the home. Every detail is designed with practicality and style in mind. Located in East Central ISD with convenient access to major highways and style in mind. Just a short drive to shopping centers, entertainment, downtown, Fort Sam & much more!

2. 2026-04-21
   price $239,990 870-char remark

   Show marketing remark (870 chars)

   *MOVE IN READY & ALL APPLIANCES/GARAGE DOOR OPENER INCLUDED!* Built by Empires Homes the Duval plan offers 1408 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space in the desirable Agave community. This one-story home blends modern style with everyday comfort, creating a layout that feels both functional and inviting. The open-concept design provides a seamless flow between the living, dining and kitchen areas perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. The kitchen features ample counter space and sleek finishes. The bedrooms offer peaceful retreats, while smart storage solutions maximize space throughout the home. Every detail is designed with practicality and style in mind. Located in East Central ISD with convenient access to major highways and style in mind. Just a short drive to shopping centers, entertainment, downtown, Fort Sam & much more!

3. 2026-04-12
   price $249,990 870-char remark

   Show marketing remark (870 chars)

   *MOVE IN READY & ALL APPLIANCES/GARAGE DOOR OPENER INCLUDED!* Built by Empires Homes the Duval plan offers 1408 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space in the desirable Agave community. This one-story home blends modern style with everyday comfort, creating a layout that feels both functional and inviting. The open-concept design provides a seamless flow between the living, dining and kitchen areas perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. The kitchen features ample counter space and sleek finishes. The bedrooms offer peaceful retreats, while smart storage solutions maximize space throughout the home. Every detail is designed with practicality and style in mind. Located in East Central ISD with convenient access to major highways and style in mind. Just a short drive to shopping centers, entertainment, downtown, Fort Sam & much more!

4. 2026-03-03
   listed $279,490 New 870-char remark

   Show marketing remark (870 chars)

   *MOVE IN READY & ALL APPLIANCES/GARAGE DOOR OPENER INCLUDED!* Built by Empires Homes the Duval plan offers 1408 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space in the desirable Agave community. This one-story home blends modern style with everyday comfort, creating a layout that feels both functional and inviting. The open-concept design provides a seamless flow between the living, dining and kitchen areas perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. The kitchen features ample counter space and sleek finishes. The bedrooms offer peaceful retreats, while smart storage solutions maximize space throughout the home. Every detail is designed with practicality and style in mind. Located in East Central ISD with convenient access to major highways and style in mind. Just a short drive to shopping centers, entertainment, downtown, Fort Sam & much more!

5. 2026-03-03
   historical

   Show marketing remark (870 chars)

   *MOVE IN READY & ALL APPLIANCES/GARAGE DOOR OPENER INCLUDED!* Built by Empires Homes the Duval plan offers 1408 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space in the desirable Agave community. This one-story home blends modern style with everyday comfort, creating a layout that feels both functional and inviting. The open-concept design provides a seamless flow between the living, dining and kitchen areas perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. The kitchen features ample counter space and sleek finishes. The bedrooms offer peaceful retreats, while smart storage solutions maximize space throughout the home. Every detail is designed with practicality and style in mind. Located in East Central ISD with convenient access to major highways and style in mind. Just a short drive to shopping centers, entertainment, downtown, Fort Sam & much more!

6. 2026-01-30
   price $259,990
7. 2026-01-13
   price $249,990
8. 2025-12-23
   price $259,990
9. 2025-11-20
   price $259,998
10. 2025-10-16
    price $264,490
11. 2025-09-30
    price $251,998
12. 2025-09-10
    listed $279,490 New
13. 2025-09-10
    historical
14. 2025-08-29
    price $279,490
15. 2025-06-16
    listed $275,990 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,443
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$7,623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,830
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,476
• Household income: $66,362
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 26% White 19% Black 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.18%
• Current HPI: 278.8429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $239,990 LERA
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $249,990 LERA
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-03-03 Listed $279,490 LERA
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $259,990 LERA
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $249,990 LERA
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $259,990 LERA
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $259,998 LERA
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $264,490 LERA
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $251,998 LERA
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-09-10 Listed $279,490 LERA
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $279,490 LERA
• 2025-06-16 Listed $275,990 LERA