5471 Drexel Dr · Theodore, AL 36582

$199,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2004 10,210 sqft lot $163/sqft · at area comps Est $206k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This well maintained, USDA Eligible home would make a wonderful investment or primary residence. Sitting on a spacious lot, on a private cul de sac, this 3 bedroom and 2 bath gem has many perks. The primary bedroom is split from the other 2 bedrooms creating privacy and tranquility. It features a new AC (2022), new landscaping, fresh paint, a 2 year old roof and 2 year old laminate floors. The sellers have installed a new Vivint security system, which notifies you when someone is on your property and allows you to check your cameras using your phone. Even the AC can be controlled using your phone through the system. Get your showing scheduled, this house will not last long!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Primary suite
• Smart range

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SMART RANGE
• VIVANT CAMERA ALARM SYSTEM
• CUL-DE-SAC
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Bellingrath Road Country Club Estates subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available; Public sewer; Electric service: Other
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2004; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; No window features listed
• Exterior features: Other; No fencing; View present

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in Theodore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#145 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mary W Burroughs Elementary School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #486 of 627 statewide, top 79%, 390 students, 85% FRL); Theodore High School (math 10% / reading 12%, grade F, #247 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,280 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,397 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.94%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,325
• List price: $199,500
• Delta: -3.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5410 Drexel Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,228 (+0%)	2mo	$206,000	$168	93
7693 Broome Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-1%)	1mo	$200,000	$165	76
7851 Heaton Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	7mo	$185,000	$154	73
7605 Kelcey Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,225 (0%)	12mo	$199,000	$162	72
7684 Broome Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-3%)	8mo	$175,000	$147	70
7542 Willard Dr W	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,323 (+8%)	9mo	$206,500	$156	68
7610 Bracklyn Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+6%)	15mo	$215,000	$166	66
7795 Bellingrath Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-12%)	4mo	$165,000	$153	64
7535 Bowers Ln	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,235 (+1%)	11mo	$40,000	$32	55
7595 Bracklyn Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+12%)	15mo	$202,000	$148	54
5691 Alice Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,072 (-12%)	10mo	$80,000	$75	50
7250 Oriental Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+14%)	5mo	$56,100	$40	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,822
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,374
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36582

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $613/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,494

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7669 Willard Ct Theodore, AL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,700	$1.15	13d	1	0.30mi
5831 Belle Terrace Dr Theodore, AL	3.0	1.5	1485	$1,550	$1.04	43d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $199,500 Active 435-char remark
2. 2022-06-27
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Welcome home! This well maintained, USDA Eligible home would make a wonderful investment or primary residence. Sitting on a spacious lot, on a private cul de sac, this 3 bedroom and 2 bath gem has many perks. The primary bedroom is split from the other 2 bedrooms creating privacy and tranquility. It features a new AC (2022), new landscaping, fresh paint, a 2 year old roof and 2 year old laminate floors. The sellers have installed a new Vivint security system, which notifies you when someone is on your property and allows you to check your cameras using your phone. Even the AC can be controlled using your phone through the system. Get your showing scheduled, this house will not last long!

3. 2022-05-15
   status Pending 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Welcome home! This well maintained, USDA Eligible home would make a wonderful investment or primary residence. Sitting on a spacious lot, on a private cul de sac, this 3 bedroom and 2 bath gem has many perks. The primary bedroom is split from the other 2 bedrooms creating privacy and tranquility. It features a new AC (2022), new landscaping, fresh paint, a 2 year old roof and 2 year old laminate floors. The sellers have installed a new Vivint security system, which notifies you when someone is on your property and allows you to check your cameras using your phone. Even the AC can be controlled using your phone through the system. Get your showing scheduled, this house will not last long!

4. 2022-05-12
   listed $165,000 Active 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   Welcome home! This well maintained, USDA Eligible home would make a wonderful investment or primary residence. Sitting on a spacious lot, on a private cul de sac, this 3 bedroom and 2 bath gem has many perks. The primary bedroom is split from the other 2 bedrooms creating privacy and tranquility. It features a new AC (2022), new landscaping, fresh paint, a 2 year old roof and 2 year old laminate floors. The sellers have installed a new Vivint security system, which notifies you when someone is on your property and allows you to check your cameras using your phone. Even the AC can be controlled using your phone through the system. Get your showing scheduled, this house will not last long!

5. 2021-05-25
   soldstatus $140,000
6. 2021-05-10
   soldstatus $140,000

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   Welcome all first time home buyers,! This well maintained home is perfect for you! Would also make a great rental property. This home offers very nice laminate wood flooring throughout, freshly painted walls, and a homey feel. Located on a cul-de-sac in a USDA approved area. This home won't last long, so come see today! Measurements are not guaranteed by agent and should be verified by the buyer/buyer's agent.

7. 2019-02-25
   soldstatus $104,116
8. 2009-06-18
   soldstatus $91,351

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $613 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$205/yr (+$17/mo · 33.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$613
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$2
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$0
• After-tax cash flow: $3,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Theodore

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #13651

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Theodore, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 23,705
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,705
• Household income: $64,763
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.61%
• Current HPI: 209.7621
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+118.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-01 Listed $199,500 GCMLS AL
• 2022-06-27 Sold (MLS) $165,000 BCAR
• 2022-05-15 Pending — BCAR
• 2022-05-12 Listed $165,000 BCAR
• 2021-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-10 Sold (MLS) $140,000 GCMLS AL
• 2019-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $104,116 Public Records
• 2009-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $91,351 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $613 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.