5635 Shadowbend Cir Cir N · Lumberton, TX 77657

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2006 4,517 ac lot Est $205k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Own a home in Westwood Village! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has both a covered front porch and a pergola covered back patio so you can relax outdoors. Inside, you will find open concept living with high ceilings and lots of natural light. The hard floors throughout all of the main living spaces provide an easy flow with easy cleaning. Keep the entertainment going in the backyard with the privacy of a wooden fence, or retreat to your main bedroom where the hard floors and high ceiling continue. Call to come tour this home!

Key facts

• 4517 acre lot
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.85%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,344
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5220 Springwood Loop	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,168 (+5%)	10mo	$230,900	$198	75
6645 Palace Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,167 (+5%)	23mo	$215,000	$184	57
6605 Palace Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+13%)	12mo	$214,900	$170	55
6630 Palace Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,259 (+13%)	10mo	$260,000	$207	55
5318 Wheeler Rd	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,261 (+13%)	22mo	$224,900	$178	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,961
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,042
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,963/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,746

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $340	-5% $283	+0% $226	+5% $170	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $66	-5% $146	+0% $226	+5% $307	+10% $387
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $277	base $226	+0.5pp $175	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5670 Shadowbend Cir N Unit 104 Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	14d	1	0.04mi
5525 Westchase Loop Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,100	$1.52	14d	1	0.51mi
30 Stephens Ln Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1290	$1,650	$1.28	44d	1	0.76mi
65 Jordan Dr Lumberton, TX	4.0	2.0	1352	$1,995	$1.48	14d	1	1.02mi
7988 Hickory Hollow Dr Unit 1 Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	14d	1	1.20mi
7988 Hickory Hollow Dr #2 Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	784	$1,050	$1.34	14d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   soldstatus Closed 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Own a home in Westwood Village! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has both a covered front porch and a pergola covered back patio so you can relax outdoors. Inside, you will find open concept living with high ceilings and lots of natural light. The hard floors throughout all of the main living spaces provide an easy flow with easy cleaning. Keep the entertainment going in the backyard with the privacy of a wooden fence, or retreat to your main bedroom where the hard floors and high ceiling continue. Call to come tour this home!

2. 2026-04-06
   status Pending 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Own a home in Westwood Village! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has both a covered front porch and a pergola covered back patio so you can relax outdoors. Inside, you will find open concept living with high ceilings and lots of natural light. The hard floors throughout all of the main living spaces provide an easy flow with easy cleaning. Keep the entertainment going in the backyard with the privacy of a wooden fence, or retreat to your main bedroom where the hard floors and high ceiling continue. Call to come tour this home!

3. 2026-04-06
   historical

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Own a home in Westwood Village! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has both a covered front porch and a pergola covered back patio so you can relax outdoors. Inside, you will find open concept living with high ceilings and lots of natural light. The hard floors throughout all of the main living spaces provide an easy flow with easy cleaning. Keep the entertainment going in the backyard with the privacy of a wooden fence, or retreat to your main bedroom where the hard floors and high ceiling continue. Call to come tour this home!

4. 2026-02-02
   price $200,000 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Own a home in Westwood Village! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has both a covered front porch and a pergola covered back patio so you can relax outdoors. Inside, you will find open concept living with high ceilings and lots of natural light. The hard floors throughout all of the main living spaces provide an easy flow with easy cleaning. Keep the entertainment going in the backyard with the privacy of a wooden fence, or retreat to your main bedroom where the hard floors and high ceiling continue. Call to come tour this home!

5. 2025-11-12
   listed $200,000
6. 2025-11-05
   price $210,000 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Own a home in Westwood Village! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has both a covered front porch and a pergola covered back patio so you can relax outdoors. Inside, you will find open concept living with high ceilings and lots of natural light. The hard floors throughout all of the main living spaces provide an easy flow with easy cleaning. Keep the entertainment going in the backyard with the privacy of a wooden fence, or retreat to your main bedroom where the hard floors and high ceiling continue. Call to come tour this home!

7. 2025-05-12
   listed $225,000 Active 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Own a home in Westwood Village! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has both a covered front porch and a pergola covered back patio so you can relax outdoors. Inside, you will find open concept living with high ceilings and lots of natural light. The hard floors throughout all of the main living spaces provide an easy flow with easy cleaning. Keep the entertainment going in the backyard with the privacy of a wooden fence, or retreat to your main bedroom where the hard floors and high ceiling continue. Call to come tour this home!

8. 2025-03-21
   historical $1,650
9. 2025-03-08
   listed $1,650
10. 2019-08-29
    soldstatus
11. 2019-08-26
    soldstatus 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Come fall in love with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in Lumberton. Featuring tons of upgrades including bamboo flooring, granite counter tops, updated bathrooms, indoor utility room, large covered patio, lush landscaping & so much more! Schedule your showing today!

12. 2019-08-08
    listed $149,900 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Come fall in love with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in Lumberton. Featuring tons of upgrades including bamboo flooring, granite counter tops, updated bathrooms, indoor utility room, large covered patio, lush landscaping & so much more! Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,963 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$697/yr (+$58/mo · 23.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,963
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$120
• After-tax cash flow: $2,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2026-04-06 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-06 Delisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $200,000 BBOR
• 2025-11-12 Listed $200,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $210,000 BBOR
• 2025-05-12 Listed $225,000 BBOR
• 2025-03-21 Rental Removed $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-08 Listed for Rent $1,650 APPFOLIO
• 2019-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-26 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2019-08-08 Listed $149,900 BBOR

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,963 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.