5025 Wintun Way · Clearlake Riviera, CA 95451

$254,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Land public records · 305 Days on market

Built 2001 7,405 sqft lot $241/sqft · 27% above area Est $266k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cared for three bedroom two bath shows the pride of home ownership. The open concept living room, dining room, and kitchen give you a feeling of open spaces. Peak a boo views of the lake and mountains are a nice addition. The beautiful laminate floors have had great care. Special features for a disabled person are front and back ramps plus a bathroom that is wheelchair access. The front yard is low maintenance with a gazebo effect to enjoy the yard. The back yard has a large dog run for two big dogs. Close to the grocery store and restaurants for your convenance. Solar was installed this year to keep you warm and cozy or cool in the summer and it has been a great improvement to the utilities expense. Come take a look at is comfortable home with views.

Key facts

• Peak a boo views
• Large dog run
• Solar installed

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• PEAK A BOO VIEWS
• LOW MAINTENANCE FRONT YARD
• GAZEBO EFFECT
• LARGE DOG RUN
• SOLAR INSTALLED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.3% in Clearlake Riviera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#690 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,377/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 194% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,765
• List price: $254,000
• Delta: -4.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-32,771
• Equity at exit: $37,872

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,651
• Equity at exit: $21,961

Cash invested: $71,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95451

• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,551/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,211

Max offer price $254,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,500
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $254,000 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,000 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,000 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,000 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,000 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $254,000 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $254,000 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,000 Active 295 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,000 Active 294 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,000 Active 293 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,000 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,000 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,000 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,000 Active 287 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,000 Active 286 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $254,000 Active 285 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $254,000 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    This cared for three bedroom two bath shows the pride of home ownership. The open concept living room, dining room, and kitchen give you a feeling of open spaces. Peak a boo views of the lake and mountains are a nice addition. The beautiful laminate floors have had great care. Special features for a disabled person are front and back ramps plus a bathroom that is wheelchair access. The front yard is low maintenance with a gazebo effect to enjoy the yard. The back yard has a large dog run for two big dogs. Close to the grocery store and restaurants for your convenance. Solar was installed this year to keep you warm and cozy or cool in the summer and it has been a great improvement to the utilities expense. Come take a look at is comfortable home with views.

18. 2025-08-18
    listed $279,000 Active 766-char remark

    Show marketing remark (766 chars)

    This cared for three bedroom two bath shows the pride of home ownership. The open concept living room, dining room, and kitchen give you a feeling of open spaces. Peak a boo views of the lake and mountains are a nice addition. The beautiful laminate floors have had great care. Special features for a disabled person are front and back ramps plus a bathroom that is wheelchair access. The front yard is low maintenance with a gazebo effect to enjoy the yard. The back yard has a large dog run for two big dogs. Close to the grocery store and restaurants for your convenance. Solar was installed this year to keep you warm and cozy or cool in the summer and it has been a great improvement to the utilities expense. Come take a look at is comfortable home with views.

19. 2025-01-30
    historical
20. 2024-07-16
    listed $310,000 Active
21. 2007-06-10
    historical
22. 2007-01-10
    listed $299,999
23. 2005-02-04
    soldstatus $239,900
24. 2005-02-04
    soldstatus $240,000
25. 2004-10-25
    listed $239,900
26. 2002-10-15
    soldstatus $117,500
27. 2002-07-04
    historical
28. 2002-06-25
    historical
29. 2001-07-04
    listed $120,000
30. 2001-07-03
    listed $125,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,551 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,551 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,228
• − Property taxes: −$3,551
• − Insurance: −$1,270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,282
• − Management: −$2,282
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$2,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$632
• After-tax cash flow: $2,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelseyville Unified
• NCES district ID: 0619320
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,210
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #12920
• State rank: #1150 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Clearlake Riviera

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #20956

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake Riviera, CA
• County: Lake County · 24,333 people
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 12,592
• Household income: $62,568
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 194.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.45%
• Current HPI: 168.6995
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+101.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $254,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $279,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-07-16 Listed $310,000 CRMLS
• 2007-06-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-01-10 Listed $299,999 CRMLS
• 2005-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-04 Sold (MLS) $239,900 CRMLS
• 2004-10-25 Listed $239,900 CRMLS
• 2002-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records
• 2002-07-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2002-06-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2001-07-04 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2001-07-03 Listed $125,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,551 · +34.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.