806 Martingale Dr · Josephine, TX 75173

$285,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,165 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2023 9,670 sqft lot $132/sqft · 9% below area Est $312k · 9% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in August 2023, this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern style with thoughtful upgrades throughout. The open-concept floor plan is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an expansive living area filled with natural light. The oversized primary suite offers a private retreat, while the split-bedroom layout provides comfort and flexibility for family or guests. Outdoor spaces have been thoughtfully enhanced, with both the front and back covered porches upgraded with durable epoxy finishes for low-maintenance, polished outdoor living. The garage also features an epoxy-coated floor for a clean, finished look. Since purchase, the sellers have invested in valuable upgrades including full gutters, permanent customizable roofline lighting for year-round ambiance or seasonal displays, a dedicated concrete trash can pad, custom stone flower bed edging, and a smart sprinkler system with remote scheduling capabilities. Additional smart home features include a video doorbell connected to the home’s smart hub and smart garage door access for added convenience and peace of mind. Truly move-in ready, with the upgrades already done for you.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Covered porches
• Epoxy coating

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PORCHES
• EPOXY COATING
• EPOXY FINISHED GARAGE FLOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-635 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (39.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,892 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.54%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,771
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -8.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
708 Wisteria Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,155 (-0%)	1mo	$255,000	$118	86
205 Weathered Way	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,042 (-6%)	2mo	$342,990	$168	80
500 Northern Red Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+7%)	1mo	$303,490	$131	78
1133 Bristlecone Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,024 (-6%)	0mo	$324,990	$161	72
207 Saddletree Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,368 (+9%)	1mo	$351,205	$148	71
512 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,024 (-6%)	2mo	$291,535	$144	68
516 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-6%)	1mo	$301,490	$148	65
204 Shady Bank Way	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,454 (+13%)	2mo	$414,686	$169	64
404 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,454 (+13%)	1mo	$340,990	$139	57
508 Northern Red Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,916 (-12%)	1mo	$279,990	$146	55
501 Farmhouse Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,070 (-4%)	2mo	$279,000	$135	55
505 Silver Birch Dr	0.50mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,938 (-10%)	1mo	$269,990	$139	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $115,021
• Equity at exit: $256,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $370,944
• Equity at exit: $553,692

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$620 /mo · $7,435/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,885

Max offer price $172,892

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-473	-5% $-554	+0% $-635	+5% $-715	+10% $-796
Rent	-10% $-799	-5% $-717	+0% $-635	+5% $-552	+10% $-470
Rate	-1.0pp $-491	-0.5pp $-562	base $-635	+0.5pp $-708	+1.0pp $-784

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	0.10mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	0.42mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	0.42mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	0.44mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	0.50mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	0.52mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	0.54mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	0.60mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	7d	1	0.63mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	4d	1	0.63mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.65mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	0.65mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	0.66mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.72mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	14d	1	0.73mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	0.75mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	14d	1	0.80mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	0.81mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	45d	1	0.95mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	26d	1	0.95mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	14d	1	0.98mi
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	45d	1	1.05mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	1.05mi
1501 Bridle Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	45d	1	1.08mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	9d	1	1.08mi
1413 Thunder Canyon Way Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	45d	1	1.21mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $285,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $308,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $308,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $308,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $308,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $308,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $308,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $308,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $308,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $308,000 1308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1308 chars)

    Built in August 2023, this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern style with thoughtful upgrades throughout. The open-concept floor plan is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an expansive living area filled with natural light. The oversized primary suite offers a private retreat, while the split-bedroom layout provides comfort and flexibility for family or guests. Outdoor spaces have been thoughtfully enhanced, with both the front and back covered porches upgraded with durable epoxy finishes for low-maintenance, polished outdoor living. The garage also features an epoxy-coated floor for a clean, finished look. Since purchase, the sellers have invested in valuable upgrades including full gutters, permanent customizable roofline lighting for year-round ambiance or seasonal displays, a dedicated concrete trash can pad, custom stone flower bed edging, and a smart sprinkler system with remote scheduling capabilities. Additional smart home features include a video doorbell connected to the home’s smart hub and smart garage door access for added convenience and peace of mind. Truly move-in ready, with the upgrades already done for you.

17. 2026-04-14
    price $325,000 1308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1308 chars)

    Built in August 2023, this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern style with thoughtful upgrades throughout. The open-concept floor plan is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an expansive living area filled with natural light. The oversized primary suite offers a private retreat, while the split-bedroom layout provides comfort and flexibility for family or guests. Outdoor spaces have been thoughtfully enhanced, with both the front and back covered porches upgraded with durable epoxy finishes for low-maintenance, polished outdoor living. The garage also features an epoxy-coated floor for a clean, finished look. Since purchase, the sellers have invested in valuable upgrades including full gutters, permanent customizable roofline lighting for year-round ambiance or seasonal displays, a dedicated concrete trash can pad, custom stone flower bed edging, and a smart sprinkler system with remote scheduling capabilities. Additional smart home features include a video doorbell connected to the home’s smart hub and smart garage door access for added convenience and peace of mind. Truly move-in ready, with the upgrades already done for you.

18. 2026-04-01
    price $335,000 1308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1308 chars)

    Built in August 2023, this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern style with thoughtful upgrades throughout. The open-concept floor plan is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an expansive living area filled with natural light. The oversized primary suite offers a private retreat, while the split-bedroom layout provides comfort and flexibility for family or guests. Outdoor spaces have been thoughtfully enhanced, with both the front and back covered porches upgraded with durable epoxy finishes for low-maintenance, polished outdoor living. The garage also features an epoxy-coated floor for a clean, finished look. Since purchase, the sellers have invested in valuable upgrades including full gutters, permanent customizable roofline lighting for year-round ambiance or seasonal displays, a dedicated concrete trash can pad, custom stone flower bed edging, and a smart sprinkler system with remote scheduling capabilities. Additional smart home features include a video doorbell connected to the home’s smart hub and smart garage door access for added convenience and peace of mind. Truly move-in ready, with the upgrades already done for you.

19. 2026-02-25
    listed $340,000 Active 1308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1308 chars)

    Built in August 2023, this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern style with thoughtful upgrades throughout. The open-concept floor plan is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and an expansive living area filled with natural light. The oversized primary suite offers a private retreat, while the split-bedroom layout provides comfort and flexibility for family or guests. Outdoor spaces have been thoughtfully enhanced, with both the front and back covered porches upgraded with durable epoxy finishes for low-maintenance, polished outdoor living. The garage also features an epoxy-coated floor for a clean, finished look. Since purchase, the sellers have invested in valuable upgrades including full gutters, permanent customizable roofline lighting for year-round ambiance or seasonal displays, a dedicated concrete trash can pad, custom stone flower bed edging, and a smart sprinkler system with remote scheduling capabilities. Additional smart home features include a video doorbell connected to the home’s smart hub and smart garage door access for added convenience and peace of mind. Truly move-in ready, with the upgrades already done for you.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,435 · $620/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,435 · $620/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$7,435
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$12,687
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,045
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $308,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $335,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $340,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,435 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.