47115 Partridge Pass · Kathio, MN 56450

$54,200

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 361 Days on market

Built 1971 0.39 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is in poor condition, nice lot, 12x16 detached shed, property has a drilled well and a non comforming septic system. Sold AS IS, Priced at Mille Lacs County Assessed Value.

Key facts

• Drilled well
• Detached shed
• 0.39 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED SHED
• DRILLED WELL
• NON CONFORMING SEPTIC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $933 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Onamia Public School District (rural): math 16% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #289 of 301 in MN (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Mille Lacs County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($375 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Mille Lacs County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 361 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $47,696 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 361 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.74%
• DSCR: 4.28
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $69,967
• Equity at exit: $28,655

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.62×
• Total profit: $161,181
• Equity at exit: $47,830

Cash invested: $15,176 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56450

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$284
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $612/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $933

Break-even live

Break-even rent $453

Max offer price $54,200

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $963	-5% $948	+0% $933	+5% $917	+10% $902
Rent	-10% $804	-5% $868	+0% $933	+5% $997	+10% $1,062
Rate	-1.0pp $960	-0.5pp $946	base $933	+0.5pp $919	+1.0pp $904

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,550
• Closing costs: $1,626
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,200 Active 361 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,200 Active 358 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,200 Active 357 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,200 Active 356 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $54,200 Active 351 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $54,200 Active 350 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $54,200 Active 349 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $54,200 Active 348 DOM
9. 2025-06-16
   listed $54,200 Active 181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   Property is in poor condition, nice lot, 12x16 detached shed, property has a drilled well and a non comforming septic system. Sold AS IS, Priced at Mille Lacs County Assessed Value.

10. 2016-10-23
    historical
11. 2016-05-04
    listed $69,500 Active
12. 2014-09-30
    historical
13. 2014-03-26
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,036
• − Property taxes: −$612
• − Insurance: −$271
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,568
• − Management: −$1,568
• − Depreciation: −$1,577
• Taxable income: $10,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,633
• After-tax cash flow: $8,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onamia Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2725050
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,743
• Composite: 17.73/100
• National rank: #9020
• State rank: #289 of 301 in MN

Livability — Kathio

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 969

Population outlook (Mille Lacs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,811 people
• By 2030: 23,960 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 21,835 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 19,376 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 14,838 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 11,957 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Native American 12% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mille Lacs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 28.9% · R 69.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.8 2016: R+35.8 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.37%
• Current HPI: 203.4801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-16.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-16 Listed $54,200 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-04 Listed $69,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-26 Listed $65,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $612 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.