Hillcrest Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$439,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,366 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Watch this home's video walkthrough tour HERE! Single-story | 4 bedrooms | 3rd bedroom / game room option | 3 baths | 2-car attached garage | covered patio |Extended foyer leads to open casual dining, family room, and island kitchen with additional countertop dining. Bedroom 3 can serve as 2nd master. Study is convenient to common area and master suite. Master bedroom located at the back of the home for privacy. * * Photos are representative, selections & features may vary with community * *

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $439,990

Exterior

• Home design: Hillcrest plan; Located in Missouri City, TX (77459)
• Construction: New construction (plan); Listed 2026
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,366

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new construction plan (Hillcrest)

🏗️ New construction. The $439,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $397,488.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $433k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,984/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($433k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $433,390 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.83%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $397,488
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,381 (+1%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	86
1610 Country Air Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,388 (+1%)	0mo	$369,900	$155	80
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,517 (+6%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	77
2119 Long Spring Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,522 (+7%)	8mo	$410,989	$163	75
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,413 (+2%)	6mo	$409,900	$170	73
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,591 (+10%)	7mo	$439,990	$170	71
8715 Fox Trail Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,152 (-9%)	9mo	$349,999	$163	70
1743 Country Air Ln	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-3%)	6mo	$385,000	$168	69
8715 Crossing Oak Ln	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,136 (-10%)	9mo	$405,000	$190	64
8703 Red Heron Ln	0.23mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,615 (+10%)	8mo	$459,000	$176	58
1706 Country Air Ln	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,700 (+14%)	6mo	$375,000	$139	53
2023 Green Haven Ct	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,623 (+11%)	8mo	$450,000	$172	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $19,518
• Equity at exit: $83,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $79,023
• Equity at exit: $77,216

Cash invested: $111,297 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,984 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,084
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$497 /mo · $5,962/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,047
• Net cashflow: $1,190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,477

Max offer price $397,488

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,372
• Closing costs: $11,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.15mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.16mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	10d	1	0.88mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	44d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,990 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,990 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,990 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,990 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,990 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,990 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $439,990 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $439,990 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $439,990 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,990 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,990 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,990 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,266
• − Property taxes: −$5,962
• − Insurance: −$1,987
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,784
• − Management: −$4,784
• − Depreciation: −$11,563
• Taxable income: $8,458
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,030
• After-tax cash flow: $12,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern interior and exterior. It has potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which can increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the space and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the space and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B