Hillcrest Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$439,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,366 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Watch this home's video walkthrough tour HERE! Single-story | 4 bedrooms | 3rd bedroom / game room option | 3 baths | 2-car attached garage | covered patio |Extended foyer leads to open casual dining, family room, and island kitchen with additional countertop dining. Bedroom 3 can serve as 2nd master. Study is convenient to common area and master suite. Master bedroom located at the back of the home for privacy.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 126 days

🏗️ New construction. The $439,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $485,019.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (28.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1773 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,002 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.49%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $485,019
• List price: $439,990
• Delta: -9.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8906 Stanley Oak Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,381 (+1%)	1mo	$384,900	$162	91
8723 Azalea Crossing Via	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,496 (+6%)	1mo	$599,000	$240	88
2010 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,529 (+7%)	3mo	$574,900	$227	85
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,381 (+1%)	6mo	$365,000	$153	83
1610 Country Air Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,388 (+1%)	4mo	$369,900	$155	77
8831 Morning Glow Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,388 (+1%)	3mo	$370,000	$155	76
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,517 (+6%)	8mo	$359,900	$143	74
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,413 (+2%)	9mo	$409,900	$170	70
2111 Amelia Way Dr	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,640 (+12%)	2mo	$400,000	$152	70
2326 Calm Channel Ct	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,526 (+7%)	2mo	$412,000	$163	67
1743 Country Air Ln	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-3%)	9mo	$385,000	$168	67
9311 Crescent Mill Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,577 (+9%)	3mo	$419,900	$163	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-134,558
• Equity at exit: $101,722

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-220,324
• Equity at exit: $94,220

Cash invested: $135,805 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 111 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 22.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $435,990 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 132 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1773
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,740 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$606 /mo · $7,275/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-1,187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,243

Max offer price $313,223

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-852	-5% $-1,020	+0% $-1,187	+5% $-1,355	+10% $-1,522
Rent	-10% $-1,404	-5% $-1,295	+0% $-1,187	+5% $-1,079	+10% $-971
Rate	-1.0pp $-943	-0.5pp $-1,064	base $-1,187	+0.5pp $-1,313	+1.0pp $-1,441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,255
• Closing costs: $14,551
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1914 Misty Field Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2051	$2,200	$1.07	10d	1	0.14mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	117d	1	0.15mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	0.16mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	82d	1	0.46mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	45d	1	0.51mi
1523 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$2,500	$1.35	24d	1	0.55mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	24d	1	0.55mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	106d	1	0.88mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	139d	1	0.91mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	47d	1	1.41mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	74d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $439,990Status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Hillcrest plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,366 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Hillcrest (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $439,990 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $439,990 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $439,990 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $439,990 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $439,990 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $439,990 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $439,990 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $439,990 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $439,990 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $439,990 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $439,990 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $439,990 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $439,990 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $439,990 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $439,990 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $439,990 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $439,990 Active 103 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $439,990 Active 102 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $439,990 Active 101 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $439,990 Active 100 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $439,990 Active 99 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $439,990 Active 97 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $439,990 Active 96 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $439,990 Active 95 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $439,990 Active 94 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $439,990 Active 93 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $439,990 Active 92 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $439,990 Active 91 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $439,990 Active 90 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $439,990 Active 89 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $439,990 Active 88 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $439,990 Active 87 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $439,990 Active 86 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $439,990 Active 85 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $439,990 Active 84 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $439,990 Active 83 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $439,990 Active 82 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $439,990 Active 81 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $439,990 Active 80 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $439,990 Active 78 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $439,990 Active 77 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $439,990 Active 76 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $439,990 Active 75 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $439,990 Active 72 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $439,990 Active 70 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $439,990 Active 69 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $439,990 Active 67 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $439,990 Active 65 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $439,990 Active 64 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $439,990 Active 63 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 14% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,169
• − Property taxes: −$7,275
• − Insurance: −$2,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,630
• − Management: −$2,630
• − Depreciation: −$14,110
• Taxable loss: −$23,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,606
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,830–$35,490 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern interior and exterior. It has potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which can increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the space and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $439,990Status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (Hillcrest plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,366 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Hillcrest (new construction)