The Blue Jay Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$246,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 1096 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The efficient layout of the Blue Jay plan features an open concept kitchen, dining, and family room. A convenient pocket office is located at the front of the home separating it from the bedrooms and kitchen/dining area that can be converted into a powder bathroom or additional garage storage space. The three bedrooms and two full baths are located on one side of the home, creating ample room for the spacious family room at the heart of this plan.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1095 days

🏗️ New construction. The $246,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,829.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2366 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1096 days — a 12% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $200,887 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1096 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.05%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,829
• List price: $246,990
• Delta: -10.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27076 Badger Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-1%)	11mo	$249,243	$167	85
10010 Cottontail Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+2%)	10mo	$239,990	$156	82
10033 Swift Fox Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,693 (+13%)	7mo	$274,900	$162	66
10272 Badger Run Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-5%)	7mo	$280,260	$196	65
10249 Badger Run Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+4%)	11mo	$266,475	$170	64
27106 Apache Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+7%)	1mo	$415,000	$259	64
9948 Glenbrook Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-3%)	4mo	$239,900	$164	62
10288 Badger Run Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,597 (+6%)	10mo	$256,724	$161	59
27219 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+9%)	10mo	$279,725	$171	59
27398 Axis Deer Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-10%)	10mo	$239,730	$178	56
27394 Axis Deer Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,689 (+13%)	11mo	$262,542	$155	52
10260 Badger Run Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (+13%)	8mo	$281,125	$166	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $124,754
• Equity at exit: $249,389

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $374,196
• Equity at exit: $537,817

Cash invested: $77,512 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $269,950 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 76 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 2366
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,452
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,152/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,422

Max offer price $229,642

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-135	-5% $-230	+0% $-326	+5% $-422	+10% $-517
Rent	-10% $-485	-5% $-405	+0% $-326	+5% $-247	+10% $-167
Rate	-1.0pp $-187	-0.5pp $-256	base $-326	+0.5pp $-398	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,207
• Closing costs: $8,305
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27106 Grey Fox Run Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1759	$2,050	$1.17	63d	1	0.15mi
9800 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,695	$1.30	33d	1	0.63mi
9733 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,798	$1.38	2d	1	0.67mi
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	143d	1	0.70mi
9838 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,719	$1.09	49d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $246,990 Active 1096 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $246,990 Active 1095 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $246,990 Active 1094 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $246,990 Active 1093 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $246,990 Active 1092 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $246,990 Active 1090 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $246,990 Active 1089 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $246,990 Active 1088 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $246,990 Active 1087 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $246,990 Active 1086 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $246,990 Active 1085 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $246,990 Active 1084 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $246,990 Active 1083 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $246,990 Active 1082 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $246,990 Active 1081 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $246,990 Active 1080 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $246,990 Active 1079 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $246,990 Active 1078 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $246,990 Active 1077 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $246,990 Active 1076 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $246,990 Active 1075 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $246,990 Active 1074 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $246,990 Active 1073 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $246,990 Active 1072 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $246,990 Active 1071 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $246,990 Active 1070 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $246,990 Active 1069 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $246,990 Active 1068 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $246,990 Active 1067 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $246,990 Active 1066 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $246,990 Active 1065 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $246,990 Active 1064 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $246,990 Active 1063 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $246,990 Active 1062 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $246,990 Active 1061 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $246,990 Active 1060 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $246,990 Active 1059 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $246,990 Active 1058 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $246,990 Active 1057 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $246,990 Active 1056 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $246,990 Active 1055 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $246,990 Active 1054 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $246,990 Active 1053 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $246,990 Active 1052 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $246,990 Active 1051 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $246,990 Active 1050 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $246,990 Active 1049 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $246,990 Active 1048 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $246,990 Active 1047 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $246,990 Active 1046 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,507
• − Property taxes: −$4,152
• − Insurance: −$1,384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − Depreciation: −$8,053
• Taxable loss: −$8,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,123
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

The Blue Jay Plan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with high potential for both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedric C Smith D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-20 Price Changed $246,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-27 Price Changed $241,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Price Changed $237,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $234,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-01 Price Changed $232,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-20 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $249,990 Zillow