4005 Par Dr · Callaway, FL 32404

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 246 Days on market

Built 1985 8,538 sqft lot $198/sqft · 14% above area Est $219k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3BR/2BA Home on a Spacious Cul-de-Sac Lot!Welcome home to 4005 Par Dr, a beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence located on a quiet cul-de-sac in Panama City. This inviting home offers privacy, comfort, and convenience — perfect for anyone looking to enjoy Florida living at an affordable price. Step inside to find a bright, open floor plan with fresh interior paint and recent updates throughout, giving the home a modern and welcoming feel. The kitchen opens to the dining and living areas, creating a great flow for entertaining or family gatherings. The property features a large fenced-in backyard, ideal for pets, children, or weekend barbecues. The cul-de-sac setting provides minimal traffic and a peaceful atmosphere. Located just 15-20 minutes from shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home offers both tranquility and convenience. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home checks all the boxes!

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Open floor plan
• Quiet atmosphere

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RECENT UPDATES
• QUIET ATMOSPHERE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.1% in Callaway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Callaway Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 511 students, 72% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $250k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.06%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,744
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: 14.24%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12027 Country Club Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+11%)	18mo	$230,000	$163	54
12340 Cue Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+11%)	13mo	$277,000	$197	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-29,598
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-22,929
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,070/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,904

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $308	+0% $237	+5% $166	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $150	+0% $237	+5% $324	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $301	base $237	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12013 Hauser Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	15d	1	0.52mi
1007 Bayside St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,900	$1.25	15d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,900 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 232 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 227 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 226 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 225 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 224 DOM
19. 2025-10-17
    listed $249,900 Active 1000-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    Charming 3BR/2BA Home on a Spacious Cul-de-Sac Lot!Welcome home to 4005 Par Dr, a beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence located on a quiet cul-de-sac in Panama City. This inviting home offers privacy, comfort, and convenience — perfect for anyone looking to enjoy Florida living at an affordable price. Step inside to find a bright, open floor plan with fresh interior paint and recent updates throughout, giving the home a modern and welcoming feel. The kitchen opens to the dining and living areas, creating a great flow for entertaining or family gatherings. The property features a large fenced-in backyard, ideal for pets, children, or weekend barbecues. The cul-de-sac setting provides minimal traffic and a peaceful atmosphere. Located just 15-20 minutes from shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home offers both tranquility and convenience. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this home checks all the boxes!

20. 2021-12-14
    historical
21. 2021-12-14
    historical
22. 2008-09-24
    soldstatus $119,000
23. 2008-09-23
    soldstatus $119,000
24. 2008-08-12
    listed $119,000
25. 2008-07-28
    listed $145,000
26. 2008-05-14
    listed $145,000
27. 2005-09-30
    soldstatus $163,500
28. 2005-08-29
    listed $159,000
29. 1991-02-01
    soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,070 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,004/yr (+$84/mo · 93.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,070
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$1,376
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$330
• After-tax cash flow: $3,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Callaway

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #14384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+390.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-17 Listed $249,900 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2008-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-23 Sold (MLS) $119,000 CPARMLS
• 2008-08-12 Listed $119,000 CPARMLS
• 2008-07-28 Listed $145,000 CPARMLS
• 2008-05-14 Listed $145,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-09-30 Sold (MLS) $163,500 CPARMLS
• 2005-08-29 Listed $159,000 CPARMLS
• 1991-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,070 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.