9219 Aurelia Ave · Ruskin, FL 34219

$389,879

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,005 sqft · Land · 58 Days on market

Built 2025 6,681 sqft lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. The Glades is a well-designed single-story home offering just over 2,000 square feet of comfortable, open-concept living space. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this home is ideal for anyone who values both function and flexibility. At the heart of the Glades is a spacious kitchen that spans two walls, offering plenty of room for appliances, storage, and meal prep. A central island with a breakfast bar makes quick meals or casual gatherings easy and enjoyable. The kitchen flows effortlessly into the dining area and great room, creating one large open space that's perfect for entertaining. The dining space comfortably accommodates a table

Key facts

• Central island
• Spacious kitchen
• Dining area

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area listed as 2,005 (builder); Building area total 2,827; Lot approx. 0.15 acres; Permit number BLD2507-5572
• Financial info: CDD applicable; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee $15 (includes pool); Association amenities: pool, playground, pickleball courts, trails, fence restrictions; Community features: dog park, playground, pool, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19 x 20) with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (projected completion Nov 1, 2026); One story; Faces east; Pre-construction condition; PD-MU zoning
• Construction: Block, cement siding, and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Mattamy Homes (Glades Coastal model); Builder license CGC1524054
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Trees and landscaped grounds; Florida-friendly/native landscaping; Level, paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; In-wall pest system; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Double-pane insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry room (upper level, inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-394 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $293,058 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-96,819
• Equity at exit: $58,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-149,612
• Equity at exit: $33,710

Cash invested: $109,166 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,848/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $-394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,430

Max offer price $332,836

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-125	-5% $-259	+0% $-394	+5% $-529	+10% $-664
Rent	-10% $-626	-5% $-510	+0% $-394	+5% $-278	+10% $-163
Rate	-1.0pp $-198	-0.5pp $-295	base $-394	+0.5pp $-495	+1.0pp $-598

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,470
• Closing costs: $11,696
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8850 Ginko Run Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,600	$1.54	16d	1	0.28mi
12484 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,600	$1.71	24d	1	0.81mi
12573 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,500	$1.65	4d	1	0.88mi
13089 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2471	$2,650	$1.07	24d	1	0.99mi
12930 Oak Hill Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$2,679	$1.09	22d	1	1.03mi
10048 Big Marsh Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2034	$2,825	$1.39	24d	1	1.09mi
10832 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,899	$0.98	12d	1	1.15mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	11d	1	1.31mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	4d	1	1.31mi
6915 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	11d	1	1.38mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	4d	1	1.39mi
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,450	$1.63	16d	1	1.41mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	12d	1	1.42mi
6969 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	11d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   listed $389,879 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,839
• − Property taxes: −$5,848
• − Insurance: −$1,949
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,813
• − Management: −$2,813
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$11,342
• Taxable loss: −$11,619
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,788
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $389,879 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid