2612 Morven Park Way · The Villages, FL 32162

$429,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,922 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2004 8,632 sqft lot Est $425k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2612 Morven Park Way, where comfort, convenience, and the unmatched lifestyle of The Villages come together beautifully. Perfectly situated on a desirable corner lot in the sought-after Village of Belvedere with NO BOND, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers everything you’ve been looking for. Step inside to soaring 10-foot ceilings, elegant crown molding, and an inviting open-concept living and dining area designed for both relaxing and entertaining. The oversized eat-in kitchen provides abundant space for gathering with family and friends, while the generously sized primary suite offers a true retreat with dual closets and a glass walk-in shower. Practical features

Key facts

• Glass walk-in shower
• Dual closets
• Open-concept living

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• OVERSIZED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DUAL CLOSETS
• GLASS WALK-IN SHOWER
• WHOLE-HOME WATER TREATMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Unfurnished
• Financial info: CDD present; Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: Community pool; Community fitness center; Tennis courts; Playground; Park; Dog park; Golf (community); Golf carts allowed; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Irrigation - reclaimed water; Sidewalks; Association fee includes pool and security; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Community security (included in association amenities)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable available; Phone available; BB/HS internet available; Underground utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family home
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Screened porch; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Corner lot; Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom floorplan; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Double pane windows; Water filtration system; Water purifier; Water softener
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas dryer hookup; Washer/Dryer located inside; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $406k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,218/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $321,815 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $424,762
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2813 Churchill Downs	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,942 (+1%)	3mo	$542,000	$279	80
2725 Morven Park Way	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,776 (-8%)	0mo	$380,000	$214	79
2864 Manor Downs	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,927 (+0%)	3mo	$450,000	$234	74
2467 Ambler Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,893 (-2%)	0mo	$335,000	$177	72
637 Salem Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,915 (-0%)	0mo	$455,000	$238	64
2207 Callaway Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,961 (+2%)	2mo	$695,000	$354	63
2409 Morven Park Way	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,172 (+13%)	1mo	$479,900	$221	60
2861 Leicester Ter	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,699 (-12%)	1mo	$428,000	$252	54
10396 Silver Maple Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-14%)	1mo	$330,000	$199	49
5000 Sandpiper Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-14%)	1mo	$331,000	$200	44
10453 Silver Maple Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-14%)	3mo	$325,000	$196	42
10274 Julia Isles Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-14%)	3mo	$317,500	$191	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-75,046
• Equity at exit: $63,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-64,131
• Equity at exit: $37,092

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,218 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,950/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,385

Max offer price $405,686

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $-11	+0% $-132	+5% $-253	+10% $-375
Rent	-10% $-386	-5% $-259	+0% $-132	+5% $-5	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $-23	base $-132	+0.5pp $-243	+1.0pp $-356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2738 Morven Park Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	2175	$4,000	$1.84	22d	1	0.17mi
10339 Addison Shore Way Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1969	$2,700	$1.37	22d	1	0.63mi
5308 Bowline Ct Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,800	$1.28	22d	1	0.70mi
10457 Bethel PL Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1293	$2,649	$2.05	22d	41	0.72mi
5336 Edgewater Way Unit 5336 Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1291	$2,000	$1.55	22d	1	0.78mi
424 Bowman Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,400	$2.70	22d	1	0.89mi
3260 Atwell Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	22d	1	1.14mi
3795 Bismarck Ct Oxford, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,950	$1.89	22d	15	1.26mi
12362 NE 50th Vw Oxford, FL	4.0	4.0	1929	$2,300	$1.19	22d	1	1.26mi
12388 NE 48th Loop Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	22d	1	1.34mi
3545 Idlewood Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$4,500	$3.63	22d	1	1.35mi
3301 Archer Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	2117	$5,000	$2.36	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $429,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $429,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $429,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $429,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $450,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $450,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,950 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,561 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$611/yr (+$51/mo · 20.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$2,950
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,089
• − Management: −$3,089
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$9,167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,200
• After-tax cash flow: $616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,950 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.