653 N Hickory St · Centralia, IL 62801

$25,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 833 sqft · Other public records

Built 1933 8,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Interested in getting into the rental market?! Look no further, this is the perfect opportunity! This home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and a large living room. It's currently rented. The owner is selling two other homes and a lot on this block. Additional Lots Are: 657 N Hickory and 655 N Hickory. Homes are being sold as a bundle.

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1933

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Cap rate 37.4% vs local median 5.8% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Centralia High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 863 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $25,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 111.20%
• DSCR: 5.95
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $37,296
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.26×
• Total profit: $85,804
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62801

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $250

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $25,000 Closed
5. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $25,000 Closed
6. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $25,000 Closed
7. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $25,000 Closed
8. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
9. 2026-01-05
   historical
10. 2025-10-16
    status Pending
11. 2025-10-16
    historical
12. 2025-10-16
    historical
13. 2025-09-04
    price
14. 2025-08-12
    listed $25,000
15. 2025-08-12
    listed Active
16. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus $81,000
17. 2022-06-27
    historical
18. 2022-06-27
    historical
19. 2022-05-12
    historical Under Contract
20. 2022-05-03
    status Pending
21. 2022-04-27
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $675 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $675 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
• − Management: −$1,029
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $7,873
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,889
• After-tax cash flow: $5,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia Hsd 200
• NCES district ID: 1709300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,555
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #13470
• State rank: #668 of 919 in IL

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #9987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, IL
• City population: 19,941
• Population (ZIP): 19,941

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.12%
• Current HPI: 211.3835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-69.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Listed $25,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-27 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-27 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-12 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-03 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-27 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $675 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.