14310 Greenfield Cres SW · Bel Air, MD 21502

$44,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1973 9,655 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly remodeled 3 bedroom 2 full bath townhouse located in Bel Air near the Bel Air pool. Deck on back has a hot tub overlooking a nice sized fenced in yard with a storage shed. This house is priced to sell and won't be on the market long.

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Community pool
• Finished basement

Tags

• APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• OFF STREET PARKING
• COMMUNITY POOL
• FENCED REAR YARD
• SHED AND DECK
• FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Mixed construction materials; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Double pane windows; Building winterized
• Exterior features: Rear fencing; Shed; Deck(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Freezer; Electric oven/range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (all upper levels); One half bathroom (lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Dry wall walls and ceilings; Insulated and storm doors; Fully finished basement with walkout stairs, outside entrance, and interior access; Deck(s); Entry slope less than 1'
• Laundry & utility: Basement laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 3.9% in Bel Air — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#19 in MD, #563 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.24%
• DSCR: 3.95
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $40,744
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.65×
• Total profit: $121,266
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,629/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $564

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $664	-5% $651	+0% $638	+5% $626	+10% $613
Rent	-10% $530	-5% $584	+0% $638	+5% $693	+10% $747
Rate	-1.0pp $661	-0.5pp $650	base $638	+0.5pp $627	+1.0pp $615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $44,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 373-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $44,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,629 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,629 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$1,629
• − Insurance: −$891
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,317
• − Management: −$1,317
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $7,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,797
• After-tax cash flow: $5,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #563

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 68,720
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+21.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $44,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-31 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $137,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-15 Price Changed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-30 Listed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-28 Sold (MLS) $108,000 MRIS
• 2016-01-28 Sold (MLS) $108,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-12-19 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-12-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-10-17 Price Changed $115,000 MRIS
• 2014-09-05 Listed $119,900 MRIS
• 2014-09-05 Listed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2006-05-23 Sold (MLS) $89,900 MRIS
• 2006-03-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-03-24 Listed $89,900 MRIS
• 1990-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1983-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,629 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.