13 Mahoney Rd · New Baltimore, NY 12173

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2009 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is an adult community must be 55+ to live there. Welcome to easy, carefree living in this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-level home located in a desirable 55+ community. Designed for comfort and convenience, this home offers a bright, open layout with spacious living and dining areas that are perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The well-appointed kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, flowing seamlessly into the main living areas. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. This home is in excellent, move-in condition, allowing you to sett

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2009

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached paved garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electrical service
• Home design: Manufactured house (double wide); One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Back yard fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom located downstairs
• Flooring: Simulated wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Master bedroom on main floor; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $669 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kinderhook Central School District (rural): math 49% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #294 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $173,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.51%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $143,449
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.51×
• Total profit: $389,011
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12173

• Home prices YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,099/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $669

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $774	-5% $722	+0% $669	+5% $617	+10% $565
Rent	-10% $472	-5% $571	+0% $669	+5% $768	+10% $867
Rate	-1.0pp $763	-0.5pp $717	base $669	+0.5pp $622	+1.0pp $573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Summerset Rd Stuyvesant, NY	2.0	2.0	1560	$2,500	$1.60	15d	1	0.34mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $185,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
19. 2026-05-18
    status Active
20. 2026-05-18
    historical
21. 2026-05-18
    price $195,000
22. 2026-05-08
    status Active
23. 2026-05-07
    historical
24. 2026-05-04
    status Active
25. 2026-05-02
    price $199,000
26. 2026-03-14
    listed $219,000 Active
27. 2024-10-04
    listed $179,500 Active
28. 2020-02-17
    listed $139,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,099 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,113 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$14/yr (+$1/mo · 0.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,099
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $5,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,303
• After-tax cash flow: $6,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kinderhook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615210
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $68,409
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2223
• State rank: #294 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Baltimore

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 182
• Population (ZIP): 2,040

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 12% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.11%
• Current HPI: 393.6279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+40.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Delisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $195,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Delisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $199,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $219,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed $179,500 HVCRMLS
• 2020-02-17 Listed $139,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,099 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.