193 Mabry St · Sebastian, FL 32958

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1983 10,019 sqft lot Est $248k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper just waiting for you! You will love the back yard! Cute home with potential. Home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Bring your paint brush and your tool belt and make this one your own!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Lot approximately 0.23 acres (80 ft x 125 ft)

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Entry at level 1; North-facing
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced yard; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Primary bedroom on the first floor; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($214/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.4% in Sebastian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in FL, #1,421 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D-.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 412 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $199k implies a 398% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.57%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,696
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Mabry St	0.06mi	3/2.0	948 (+5%)	22mo	$285,000	$301	71
111 Alameda Ave	0.50mi	2/1.5 (-1)	912 (+1%)	2mo	$305,000	$334	66
918 Schumann Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	925 (+2%)	3mo	$276,000	$298	64
868 Lance St	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	927 (+2%)	4mo	$165,000	$178	56
135 Caprona St	0.63mi	3/2.0	876 (-3%)	16mo	$278,000	$317	52
9715 61st Pkwy	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	884 (-2%)	15mo	$220,000	$249	50
162 Kildare Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-4%)	10mo	$237,000	$274	40
9785 61st Way	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (-4%)	23mo	$168,900	$195	39
106 Conover Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,016 (+12%)	22mo	$265,000	$261	33
115 Ogden Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,016 (+12%)	19mo	$252,000	$248	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-23,027
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $16,759
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32958

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,196/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,303

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
141 Crawford Dr Sebastian, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	13d	1	0.15mi
5790 Marina Dr #2 Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$2,200	$2.08	13d	1	1.22mi
117 Acorn Ter Sebastian, FL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,800	$2.01	21d	1	1.24mi
5790 Marina Dr #2 Sebastian, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$2,200	$2.08	21d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    remarks 636-char remark
16. 2026-06-01
    status $199,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
19. 2026-05-23
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-05-16
    status Active
21. 2026-05-05
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2026-04-29
    listed $199,000 Active
23. 2009-09-09
    soldstatus $40,000 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Fixer upper just waiting for you! You will love the back yard! Cute home with potential. Home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Bring your paint brush and your tool belt and make this one your own!

24. 2009-06-07
    listed $49,999 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    Fixer upper just waiting for you! You will love the back yard! Cute home with potential. Home has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Bring your paint brush and your tool belt and make this one your own!

25. 2006-01-06
    soldstatus $157,000
26. 2005-10-11
    soldstatus $115,000
27. 2001-09-13
    soldstatus $57,700
28. 1994-06-15
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,196 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,196 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,196
• − Insurance: −$6,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,233
• − Management: −$2,233
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$673
• After-tax cash flow: $887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sebastian

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #1421

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sebastian, FL
• County: Indian River County · 143,738 people
• City population: 30,023
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,023
• Household income: $66,840
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 646.0

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.85%
• Current HPI: 330.1691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.22%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+397.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2026-05-05 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $199,000 SCMLS
• 2009-09-09 Sold (MLS) $40,000 SCMLS
• 2009-06-07 Listed $49,999 SCMLS
• 2006-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $157,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2001-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $57,700 Public Records
• 1994-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,196 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.