115 Arbor Lake Dr · Porterdale, GA 30016

$290,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2007 10,454 sqft lot $84/sqft · 22% below area Est $372k · 22% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in Covington! 115 Arbor offers solid potential for investors or buyers looking to customize a home to their taste. The property features a functional layout with good bones and sits in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. With some repairs and updates, this home could truly shine and become a great primary residence or investment property. Being sold as-is-bring your vision and make it your own!

Key facts

• Close to dining
• Functional layout
• Convenient location

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO MAJOR ROADWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road surface is concrete on a city street; Directions: GPS
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $350; Association covers grounds maintenance and swim amenities; Has association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered garage (2 spaces); Total of 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 110-volt electric; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer available; Underground utilities; Water available
• Home design: Two levels
• Construction: Shingle siding and other exterior materials; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Property listed in fixer condition
• Exterior features: Backyard fenced; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; White cabinets; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom; Five upper-level bedrooms; Double master bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom; Three upper-level full bathrooms; Master bath with separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace in the family room; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $286k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.1% in Porterdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#447 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 419 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,993/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 1172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.96%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,289
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -22.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Oak Manor Dr	0.12mi	6/4.0	3,432 (0%)	8mo	$347,500	$101	88
160 Oak Manor Dr	0.10mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,432 (0%)	11mo	$379,000	$110	82
100 Oak Manor Dr	0.15mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,432 (0%)	19mo	$365,000	$106	72
35 Arbor Lake Dr	0.13mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,152 (-8%)	21mo	$375,000	$119	54
365 Silver Willow Walk	0.21mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,101 (-10%)	18mo	$355,000	$114	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-24,755
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,267
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30016

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,492/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,483

Max offer price $290,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Hillside Oak Ln Covington, GA	5.0	3.0	3129	$2,975	$0.95	18d	1	0.21mi
40 Oakwood Dr Covington, GA	5.0	3.0	2480	$2,381	$0.96	5d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $290,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $290,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $290,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   statuslisting id $290,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-05-01
   listed $290,000 New 448-char remark

   Show marketing remark (448 chars)

   Great opportunity in Covington! 115 Arbor offers solid potential for investors or buyers looking to customize a home to their taste. The property features a functional layout with good bones and sits in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. With some repairs and updates, this home could truly shine and become a great primary residence or investment property. Being sold as-is-bring your vision and make it your own!

10. 2026-05-01
    listed $290,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Great opportunity in Covington! 115 Arbor offers solid potential for investors or buyers looking to customize a home to their taste. The property features a functional layout with good bones and sits in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. With some repairs and updates, this home could truly shine and become a great primary residence or investment property. Being sold as-is-bring your vision and make it your own!

11. 2007-01-31
    soldstatus $1,642,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,492 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,492 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$3,492
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,874
• − Management: −$2,874
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable income: $201
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$48
• After-tax cash flow: $4,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton County
• NCES district ID: 1303930
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,768
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8816
• State rank: #137 of 174 in GA

Livability — Porterdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #447
• US rank: #21362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Newton County · 104,393 people
• City population: 76
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 62,968
• Household income: $79,527
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1172.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,372 people
• By 2030: 124,234 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 135,550 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 145,309 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 166,843 · +40.9%
• By 2100: 175,800 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.3% · R 42.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+2.4 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.68%
• Current HPI: 317.5605
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-82.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-05-21 Delisted — GAMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $290,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $290,000 FMLS
• 2007-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $1,642,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,492 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.