515 S Curran Ave · Picayune, MS 39466

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1937 7,405 sqft lot $130/sqft · 11% below area Est $151k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute shot gun home with a little TLC could be brought back to its charming state. Within walking distance to the historic downtown Picayne area. Large fenced yard for your fur-babies too.

Key facts

• Large fenced yard
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• LARGE FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($525/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.3% in Picayune — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#11 in MS, #3,748 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Picayune School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #60 of 130 in MS (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 349 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 326 units permitted in Pearl River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pearl River County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,902
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -21.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
806 Jarrell St	0.70mi	3/1.0	864 (-5%)	21mo	$34,900	$40	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-16,527
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-10,930
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39466

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $871/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $77	+0% $44	+5% $10	+10% $-24
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $4	+0% $44	+5% $83	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $74	base $44	+0.5pp $13	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 Telly Rd Picayune, MS	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	14d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-03-27
   listed $119,000 Active 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   Cute shot gun home with a little TLC could be brought back to its charming state. Within walking distance to the historic downtown Picayne area. Large fenced yard for your fur-babies too.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $871 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$69/yr (+$6/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$871
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$1,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$363
• After-tax cash flow: $889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Picayune School District
• NCES district ID: 2803630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,446
• Composite: 27.17/100
• National rank: #7025
• State rank: #60 of 130 in MS

Livability — Picayune

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3748

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picayune, MS
• Population (ZIP): 28,292

Population outlook (Pearl River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,426 people
• By 2030: 51,663 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 47,611 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 43,286 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 32,859 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 22,476 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 18% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pearl River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.1% · R 82.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -60.4pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+60.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.32%
• Current HPI: 194.6541
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $119,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $871 · +109.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.