9227 Burch Eagle Ct · Baytown, TX 77521

$268,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,039 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $167/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Whitetail Floor Plan - The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $261,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home; Address: 9227 Burch Eagle Ct, Baytown, TX 77521
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,039 (living area value provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction); Plan: Whitetail

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Walker El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 829 students, 66% FRL); Highlands J H (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 627 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,161 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-54,773
• Equity at exit: $40,107

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-71,495
• Equity at exit: $23,257

Cash invested: $75,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 627
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,564

Max offer price $251,516

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $-28	+0% $-121	+5% $-214	+10% $-307
Rent	-10% $-311	-5% $-216	+0% $-121	+5% $-25	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-52	base $-121	+0.5pp $-190	+1.0pp $-261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,248
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6102 Bayou Birch Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2709	$2,750	$1.02	26d	1	0.95mi
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,265	$1.37	0d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $167 · $2,004/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $268,990 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $256,040 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 637-char remark
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,040 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,040 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,040 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   price $256,040 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,690 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $257,690 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $261,990 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $261,990 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $261,990 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $261,990 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $261,990 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $261,990 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $261,990 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,315
• − Management: −$2,315
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$5,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,432
• After-tax cash flow: $-17/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 19 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home features a spacious open layout and is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. The exterior could benefit from a fresh coat of paint to enhance curb appeal and increase resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace window seals — Improves energy efficiency and reduces heating/cooling costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace window seals — Improves energy efficiency and reduces heating/cooling costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B