9395 Harritt Rd,144 Rd #144 · Lakeside, CA 92040

$279,800

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2010 Est $517k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom 2 -bath manufactured home at Lakefront in Lakeside built in 2010. This home features a bright and open layout, generous living spaces and pride of ownership throughout clean, inviting and move in ready.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2010

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation: other (see remarks); Road frontage along freeway
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association with monthly fees; Association amenities: barbecue, clubhouse, RV parking, spa/hot tub; Community features: pool, tennis courts, clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: Security guard
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected; Cable available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: No additional structures; Lakefront building name
• Exterior features: Porch; Cross fenced

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas oven; Gas range / Gas cooktop; Range; Oven; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Forced air; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Gas cooling
• Interior features: Sauna; Ceiling fan(s); Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.6% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#877 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,800

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.31%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $516,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9395 Harritt Rd #131	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	1mo	$295,000	$205	86
9395 Harritt Rd Spc 39	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (+0%)	14mo	$274,500	$180	83
9500 Harritt Rd #99	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (+0%)	2mo	$565,000	$370	81
9500 Harritt Rd #4	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,493 (-2%)	1mo	$615,000	$412	80
9395 Harritt Rd #119	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	9mo	$289,000	$201	79
9395 Harritt Rd Spc 133	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,493 (-2%)	12mo	$305,000	$204	79
9500 Harritt Rd #106	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (+4%)	3mo	$540,000	$340	74
9500 Harritt Rd Spc 25	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$540,000	$375	73
9500 Harritt Rd #31	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$400,000	$278	73
9500 Harritt Rd #230	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+5%)	2mo	$631,000	$394	73
9500 Harritt Rd #29	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (+8%)	7mo	$560,000	$342	65
9395 Harritt Rd #109	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (-13%)	12mo	$345,000	$260	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $20,144
• Equity at exit: $41,719

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $107,052
• Equity at exit: $24,192

Cash invested: $78,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92040

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,467
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,085/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$711
• Net cashflow: $1,000

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,119

Max offer price $279,800

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,950
• Closing costs: $8,394
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13893 Pinkard Way #84 El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1464	$3,200	$2.19	14d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $279,800 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,085 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,126 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,041/yr (+$87/mo · 96.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,673
• − Property taxes: −$1,085
• − Insurance: −$1,399
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,249
• − Management: −$3,249
• − Depreciation: −$8,140
• Taxable income: $7,823
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,877
• After-tax cash flow: $10,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #877
• US rank: #23702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 46,216
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,216
• Household income: $107,937
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -622.09%
• Current HPI: 344.8263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $279,800 SDMLS

Property tax history

+22.1%/yr

Latest (2013): $1,085 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.