612 S Ash St · Cortez, CO 81321

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1973 7,100 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Manufactured 816 sf. , Home with three bedrooms and two baths. Front and back covered porch, fenced yard, front and back-alley entrance. Lots of parking in front area before the fencing. Location is close to Wall Mart, General Shopping, Schools, Churches and Restaurant's.

Key facts

• 7,100 sq ft lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed: owner only

Exterior

• Parking: Paved road access
• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane; Public water; Public sewer; Cellular phone reception
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story; Not a permanent foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Modular/prefab construction; Not permanent foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Shed(s); Leased propane tank; Chain link fence in front and backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Linoleum; Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Main-level primary bedroom; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.3% in Cortez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#125 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Montezuma-Cortez School District No. Re-1 (town): math 16% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #70 of 86 in CO (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 24 units permitted in Montezuma County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $165k implies a 323% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,102
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,220
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81321

• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
446 S Linden St Cortez, CO	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,700	$1.63	2d	1	0.39mi
469 W 2nd St Unit 2 Cortez, CO	2.0	1.0	580	$1,600	$2.76	2d	1	0.61mi
417 S Cedar St Cortez, CO	2.0	1.0	760	$1,350	$1.78	23d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $165,000 Active
17. 2024-09-17
    historical
18. 2024-07-03
    price $172,000
19. 2024-06-21
    listed $175,000 Active
20. 2018-10-03
    historical
21. 2018-08-07
    listed $67,500
22. 2018-02-06
    soldstatus $39,000
23. 2017-12-29
    listed $42,000
24. 2017-01-01
    historical
25. 2015-12-14
    listed $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$67
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16
• After-tax cash flow: $2,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montezuma-Cortez School District No. Re-1
• NCES district ID: 0803090
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,394
• Composite: 20.85/100
• National rank: #8499
• State rank: #70 of 86 in CO

Livability — Cortez

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #10641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cortez, CO
• County: Montezuma County · 18,723 people
• City population: 14,236
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 14,236
• Household income: $59,506
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 403.0

Population outlook (Montezuma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,943 people
• By 2030: 27,208 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 27,372 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 27,180 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 26,493 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 23,364 · -13.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Native American 9% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montezuma

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.3% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: -19.4pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+30.3 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+19.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -274.25%
• Current HPI: 264.2281
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $165,000 cren
• 2024-09-17 Listing Removed — cren
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $172,000 cren
• 2024-06-21 Listed $175,000 cren
• 2018-10-03 Listing Removed — cren
• 2018-08-07 Listed $67,500 cren
• 2018-02-06 Sold (MLS) $39,000 cren
• 2017-12-29 Listed $42,000 cren
• 2017-01-01 Listing Removed — cren
• 2015-12-14 Listed $49,500 cren

Property tax history

-11.9%/yr

Latest (2021): $15 · -49.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.