16411 Evans Ave · South Holland, IL 60473

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1956 Est $211k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

First Time on the Market with this Family Estate Property - Opportunity Abounds in this 3 Bed All-Brick Ranch with Full-Basement on Oversized Lot tucked neatly into the heart of South Holland surrounded by homes with pride of ownership. A Traditional Floorplan, Real Hardwood Floors, a very recent Professionally Updated Bath, Great Condition Roof, Side-Drive, and the Full-Basement make this one perfect for a Rehab that won't break the bank. Being sold strictly AS-IS, the buyer will be responsible for any and all repairs. Contact your agent NOW to schedule a private tour!

Key facts

• All-brick ranch
• Side-drive
• Oversized lot

Tags

• ALL-BRICK RANCH
• FULL-BASEMENT
• OVERSIZED LOT
• PROFESSIONALLY UPDATED BATH
• GREAT CONDITION ROOF
• SIDE-DRIVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property assessed using assessor's living area source; Property possession at closing
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener (2 garage spaces, 2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Water from Lake Michigan/public supply; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story layout; Fee simple ownership; Built more than 60 years ago; Contains components built before 1978
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 52 x 165 x 52 x 165; Lot under 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (18 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on main level); Bedroom 2: 11 x 10, hardwood floors; Bedroom 3: 12 x 9, hardwood floors; Master bedroom: 10 x 12, hardwood floors
• Flooring: Hardwood floors in living room and bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished full basement; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Basement laundry room (10 x 13); Storage room in basement (9 x 21)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 8.4% in South Holland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools D+.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.38%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,546
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
823 E 163rd St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,184 (+6%)	1mo	$197,500	$167	78
16645 Cottage Grove Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+0%)	1mo	$211,894	$189	77
16417 Claire Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,209 (+8%)	2mo	$254,995	$211	71
16728 School St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,170 (+5%)	2mo	$196,000	$168	69
16550 Elm Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,144 (+3%)	4mo	$252,000	$220	64
944 E 163rd Pl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,205 (+8%)	2mo	$201,000	$167	63
535 E 166th Pl	0.35mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (+8%)	2mo	$156,500	$130	62
811 E 169th Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,123 (+1%)	3mo	$257,000	$229	62
1006 E 163rd St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,263 (+13%)	1mo	$262,500	$208	53
15944 School St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-10%)	4mo	$175,000	$174	50
16914 Parkside Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,187 (+7%)	3mo	$224,700	$189	48
16428 Greenwood Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+13%)	3mo	$215,000	$171	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $60,586
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $164,266
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60473

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,117 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $1,357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16246 Dobson Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,170	$2.54	2d	1	0.48mi
16001 Avalon Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1136	$3,330	$2.93	6d	1	0.90mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	7d	1	1.14mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	24d	1	1.14mi
15238 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 2W Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	10d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,992
• − Management: −$2,992
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $14,612
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,507
• After-tax cash flow: $12,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — South Holland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #3071

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Holland, IL
• City population: 21,407
• Population (ZIP): 21,407

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.36%
• Current HPI: 201.2479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $159,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $8,131 · +73.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.